Thread by @garius

BTW, SERIOUS LONDON RAILWAY MOMENT: if you're wondering what Grayling's next tour-de-force screw will be IRL, then ask yourself this:

"Shouldn't they have awarded the Southeastern Franchise by now?"

The answer, of course is 'Yes Mr Bull they should. What's the hold up?'

Well it TURNS OUT that if you as a Department for Transport, tell bidders they have to shoulder the risk if your passenger number forecasts turn out to be bollocks post-Brexit, they tend to tell you to F-off

Of course if this had been thought about at the time, it could have been worded into the bidding. OR.. if the Sec State was prepared to accept that the DfT have to shoulder the risk, then it wouldn't be a problem.

But they didn't. And he won't.

And as no franchisee (or rather their financial backers) believes that the DfT passenger forecasts are right in a No-Deal Brexit, that, on top of other risks, means that no one is prepared to take on the SE Franchise right now.

Given that the CURRENT franchise - which has already been extended - is about to expire. Again. One suspects there are a lot of people at the DfT shouting at young Chris that he'll need to announce that it is being extended. Again.

One suspects Grayling is thinking that a line with no trains, after a shipping firm with no boats, is not a GREAT look right now. And any announcement would only draw attention to that.

Given that the current SE franchise extension runs out in June though, the clock is ticking!

ADDENDUM: A h/t @travelling_wolf's comment in the replies. As they point out, do be aware that I AM oversimplifying the nature of passenger number forecasting and contracting in this thread for character/tweet limits.

If we get enough for a full LR piece, we'll be more detailed.