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Beto would have an, IDK, 20-25% (?) chance to beat Cornyn? Cornyn isn't likely to be as unpopular as Cruz, and 2020 isn't likely to be as blue nationally as 2018 was. Texas is getting more purple but overall it's probably a tougher race than 2018 was.
Conversely, PredictIt gives him a 15-20% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, conditional upon his running. And my guess is that he'd be about equally likely to end up on the ticket as the VP candidate.
He also preserves a little bit of optionality on the Senate race as he can run for POTUS and switch lanes if he wants, a la Rubio in 2016.
In sum, it's arguably in Democrats' best interest for Beto to run for Senate but it's probably in Beto's best interest to run for president.
In sum, it's arguably in Democrats' best interest for Beto to run for Senate but it's probably in Beto's best interest to run for president.
