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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Beto would have an, IDK, 20-25% (?) chance to beat Cornyn? Cornyn isn't likely to be as unpopular as Cruz, and 2020 isn't likely to be as blue nationally as 2018 was. Texas is getting more purple but overall it's probably a tougher race than 2018 was.
Conversely, PredictIt gives him a 15-20% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, conditional upon his running. And my guess is that he'd be about equally likely to end up on the ticket as the VP candidate.
He also preserves a little bit of optionality on the Senate race as he can run for POTUS and switch lanes if he wants, a la Rubio in 2016.

In sum, it's arguably in Democrats' best interest for Beto to run for Senate but it's probably in Beto's best interest to run for president.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Booker 53
Klobuchar 39
Harris 38
Sanders 18
Warren 17
Castro 12
Biden 6
Delaney 6
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorseme…
That's right, folks: We've started tracking **endorsements** again in 2020.

Not just governors and members of Congress this time, but: Mayors! State legislative leaders! DNC members! And more! Everyone gets an endorsement!

See an endorsement we've missed? Drop us a line.
So far, Booker, Klobuchar and Harris have the most endorsements, but they're almost all from people within their state. In other words, it's very early. It's interesting who *isn't* getting endorsed, though. Gillibrand doesn't have any. Bernie has more than Warren.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
With Beto, more so than any other Democratic candidate, I'd be curious how his metrics move within the **first few weeks** after his announcement. Does he surge in the polls? Get a bunch of money? Endorsements? Staff? Media attention?
Obviously, *all* Democrats want that stuff. But I see the attachment to Beto as being more…not quite sure how to put it…momentum-driven and emotional than for most of the other Dems. He's certainly not the most well-credentialed candidate or the deepest thinker about policy.
So if he "clicks" — if he's a top-tier candidate — we'd probably know it sooner rather than later. That's not to say he'd be completely out of the running if he didn't get that initial surge, but it would be as more of a 2nd- or 3rd-tier candidate IMO.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If [Candidate X] would increase the Democrats' chances of winning the presidency by say 2 percentage points, but increase the chance of winning **one Senate seat** by say 10 percent, Democrats should strongly prefer them to run for president, not Senate.
Especially since a strong presidential candidate would tend to produce coattails up and down the ballot that would help Democrats in literally every other race.
The only candidate for whom this discussion is really even worth having is for Sherrod Brown, who would literally cost the Democrats a Senate seat (although only for 2 years) if he became POTUS/VPOUTS. With everyone else, it's a rounding error.
Read 3 tweets

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Mona
@Monaheart1229
Beto O’Rourke, who’s pondering a 2020 presidential bid, met with Barack Obama
#WednesdayWisdom #BlueWave2020 #Beto
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Julius Goat 🦆(Read Pinned Tweet!)
@JuliusGoat
I’d say the failure of a right-center Democrat to win re-election during a wave that overwhelmingly favored her party might speak to the wisdom of trying to win the “trust” of “rural” Americans using right-center politics, idk.
Pretty extraordinary to see that the punditry’s take on every election, even after Democrats massively won, is “democrats have to adjust to this sobering loss by getting more ‘conservative.’”
Oh but let’s hear more strategy from one of the few Democratic incumbents who failed to ride a wave of justifiable anti-Republican outrage to victory, on what we need to change to avoid repeating this crushing victory.
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April in TX
@BGHeaven
My closing #Midterm2018 THREAD: Let's look at how Ted Cruz has knowingly worked to divide and mislead Texans. #txlege
Please RT
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Ted Cruz FACT: He's invested millions of dollars in digital influence campaigns.
Maliciously targeting you, your family & friends.

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Randy #VOTEBLUE
@Randy18888
TEXAS VOTERS: READ THIS THREAD
Monday this was posted on Facebook. Straight Democratic Ticket changed to Republican. Then.....
Secretary of State sends this out....
After record turn out.
We need to have huge turn out for #Beto to overcome any lost votes!
•Don’t choose Straight Ticket Option
•Input your votes for each candidate
•Double Check your ballot.
#BETO @BetoORourke
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Angus Johnston
@studentactivism
Dean Heller (R-NV) just voted to confirm Kavanaugh. He recently called the sexual assault allegations against the judge "a little hiccup." He's up for re-election next month.
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🐳🌌
@flyfarahway
yoonjin time travel au

On his 55th birthday, Kim Seokjin, also known in his neighborhood as “insufferable old Kim”, makes a wish to feel genuine happiness. The next day he wakes up 22 years old again and on the day he first meets his ex-boyfriend, Min Yoongi.

#YJweek18 #day1
to anyone who might read, qt only & don't reply so thread doesn't break cuz this is a looong au and my first uwu
there is some swearing just a heads up and this is angst w a happy ending so im sorry in advance
also this is lowkey inspired by Miss Granny (ph ver). haven’t watched the film but there’s a song on the OST that just FITS and i cry

here's the song:
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