Thread by @d_jaishankar

Last night, I was in an Indian television studio, where the anchor was asking why India doesn't do more to punish Pakistan economically. When will things change? The short answer - and something many Indians don't realise - is that it has.

Last June, India persuaded China to drop its objections to Pakistan being placed on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) 'grey list'. Chinese officials reportedly told Islamabad they didn't want to "lose face by supporting a move that’s doomed to fail” dawn.com/news/1416630

The grey listing isn't simply empty words, but has real implications related to scrutiny by regulators and financial institutions. It affects Pakistan's currency inflows, credit ratings, stock market values, and banking sector. reuters.com/article/us-pak…

Another example: I'm not sure how many appreciate the dramatic drop in U.S. aid to Pakistan since 2014. As recent U.S. statements of support for India - from the White House, State, Congress - show, there's a strong correlation.

What about China? A big deal is made of CPEC and many projects - particularly in the power sector - are going ahead. But even Chinese officials put the total investment at about $19 billion rather than the inflated numbers ($60 billion +) that you often see in the press.

By comparison, there's already an estimated $7 billion in Chinese investment in India - just in the tech sector - even though India's not even officially part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Total PRC investment in Pakistan would be marginally more than investment into India.

These developments have already had very real implications for the Pakistani economy. To put it in perspective, India and Pakistan's per capita GDP were roughly the same in 2008. India's has since doubled, while Pakistan's has grown by ~50%.

To put it another way, Pakistan's GDP today ($305 billion) is less than that of one Indian state: Maharashtra (~$390-400 billion).

There are many reasons for all of this. But as the examples at the top of the thread show, it has been helped along by sustained Indian efforts to put economic pressure on Pakistan. Not that that has (yet) made a major difference to Pakistan's state support for terrorism.

Final point: I hear a lot about sanctions. Dropping 'most favoured nation' status - as India did yesterday - sounds somewhat technical. But it essentially means formalising discriminatory trade policies against Pakistan: i.e. sanctions.

As to WHY India's economic efforts haven't yet worked, let's paraphrase @CChristineFair:

Why does the Pakistan army pursue revisionist policies that imperil Pakistan? In the army's distorted view, it's victorious if it resists India's purported hegemony. To acquiesce is defeat.