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A book on the psychology of false alarms apparently argues that relying on auguries rather then the actual disaster events leads to a rise in false positives.
questia.com/library/968006…
questia.com/library/968006…
The fact that weather can be forecast creates the possibility of wrong predictions. Analogously, can the race-dar of the left be leading to false contacts, especially if they are unintentionally rewarded for spurious returns?
All things being equal a higher sensitivity to racial offense will lead to higher detection levels. The question is whether that is a real spike or merely an apparent one.
It's in fact possible that even more false positives lie ahead if turning up the gain overwhelms the negative effect of being fooled. Then one day the real wolf may come, be ignored creating a backlash vs conservatives. The best thing is to strive for accuracy.
