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Umunna split, quick analysis 1/ It's small and predictable. The project is to make Labour unelectable by continually slandering it as racist and a threat to national security. But this is not big enough to make an impact - hence their plan to stand in marginals in future...
2/ It does have the potential to screw up the PV campaign, of which I am a member and it was interesting to see the actual liberal centrists (and many Lab ppl) in PV distance themselves from Chuka's move...
3/ I understand Umunna and Mandelson repeatedly tried to gain control of the PV campaign since last summer but failed because the serious forces inside know only Labour can mitigate or stop Brexit; hence the split today is more like a Plan B...
4/ As I've repeatedly warned: the enhanced rule of law and oversight of the deep state makes the kind of action taken vs Ramsay Macdonald and Harold Wilson hard to do: the very British coup has to prevent a left Labour govt. In power it's too late...
5/ But this is a damp squib. There is no cohesive project for Macron-lite neoliberalism in the UK, and this group lacks talent or charisma. The strategic issues are outlined here: mondediplo.com/2019/02/01brex…
6/ The important thing for Labour members to avoid is the provocations this group will now trail through social media & the press; it's all designed to make you angry and lose your cool....
7/ Labour's left trajectory was always going to lose the core Blairites + neocons at some point - but the changing nature of the threats to democracy and social justice mean we will still make alliances with them vs the alt-right/xenophobes...
8/ Once the dust has settled, I think Corbyn should reward some of the people on the centre of Labour who've been loyal and played a blinder in the Commons via a reshuffled Shadow Cabinet.
9/ The main task is for the PLP to stick together; defeat May's deal (again), fight to get their own Brexit in the commons and, if that fails - as our conference instructed - campaign for a second referendum. newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
10/ We'll be discussing all this, hopefully, at the @NewStatesman event on Brexit, Wednesday night .... eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-brexit-c…
