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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit: Robbins gobbing off in a Brussels bar is interesting for one reason only; May's choice is a deal or a long extension to A50; *only consulting the British ppl again would allow A50 extension* 1/... so...
2/ Here are the routes out of the crisis ... May persuades 50+ Labour cowards to pass her deal thru panic - only possible if there is hard deadline. Robbins leak effectively confirms this...
3/ if Cooper Bill passes - taking Commons out of May control - the way is open for Corbyn to move his Brexit plan. Entirely in order to whip this - but it will fail. So what then...
4/ it falls to May either to allow indicative votes that lead to some form of soft Brexit - or go for A50 delay because of a) election or b) #finalsay referendum...
5/ so @YvetteCooperMP Bill is the route to A50 delay. Labour MPs *must* be whipped to support it. If it passes, either an election (my preferred route) or PV is likely. No Labour MP can abstain given the alternative is No Deal
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
Here's a snap analysis of Corbyn's letter to May: 1/ forget the "exact same benefits" test - it was a Tory ruse and it's never going to happen 2/ This ultimatum only works if it stops 50+ MPs led by Nandy et al breaking Labour whip and supporting May. It might...
2/ Corbyn's letter is a positive development. It sets out Labour red lines, not tests. These can only be met if May ditches the ERG and signs a permanent customs union with shared institutions - ie courts - with the EU.
3/ If May goes for Corbyn's plan, it heals some divisions in Labour voting areas; you get soft Brexit, no independent trade policy and the right can't undermine UK labour/consumer rights. If she does not...
Read 5 tweets
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
Okay here's a mind map of the Brexit endgame, with an emphasis on the challenges for Labour... 1/ If the EU ditches Ireland over backstop we get May's WA and a hard Brexit. Game over. But...
2/ If May sticks to No Deal/Ticking clock the *main danger* is a group of 50+ rightwing/centrist Labour MPs panic and vote for any deal on offer. The weak whipping operation by Labour means this is a serious possibility and Labour members need to mobilise to stop it... however...
3/ There is also a possibility that May accepts dynamic alignment with EEA over labour market rules but not the Customs Union. This, too, sparks a rightwing Labour revolt in favour of May's deal. Less likely but dangerous....
Read 11 tweets
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
The excuse "I met some people in a pub and they could not understand something" is not going to wash with Labour members who want their MPs to do very clear things: oppose No Deal, oppose May's deal, and trigger a second referendum if we cannot bring down the government... 1/~
2/ I can see the parliamentary logic of Labour not opposing the Immigration Bill at this stage, but not the moral logic. However the big issue is the @YvetteCooperMP amendment tomorrow. I call on all Labour MPs to support it...
3/ Cooper's amendment is the sure-fire way to take May's No Deal ultimatum off the table and return the government to sanity, given that there is no Commons majority for Labour's amendment.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There are plenty of #Brexit threads kicking around now on why the WTO option is bad. Unless you live in a cave or have the IQ of a halibut, you should by now have grasped the concept of what it means to be a third country and why that is ruinous for UK exporters.
2. You'll note that in the seventeen billion threads I've written on the subject that I seldom make reference to tariffs - because tariffs for the most part are neither here nor there. This is fundamentally about regulatory barriers where again the cave/halibut question kicks in.
3. Without full regulatory harmonisation there will be inspections, standard third country controls will kick in and there are no WTO rules that compel the EU to relax them and certainly not for the sole benefit of the UK. This is why we need a comprehensive agreement with the EU
Read 20 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. So I *could* do another thread on why the EEA is the best option but then I'll get a torrent of whining from ultra #Brexit idiots. So let's just cut to the chase. Yes, the EEA is suboptimal. Tough...
2. Leavers have whinged about every single alternative suggestion - suggestions which have been widely panned not only by leavers but also by Brussels. That's because these convoluted workarounds are trying to deliver the impossible.
3. The fact leavers can't bring themselves to admit is that regulatory harmonisation is a fact of life if you want frictionless trade. There is no cake and eat it option and the EU will make no special exceptions for the UK. Why should it?
Read 14 tweets
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Daniel Keohane
@KeohaneDan
This analysis, by my former boss @CER_Grant, is sound as far as it goes...but in my view omits a few very important factors...1/ of a thread on aspects Charles couldn't possibly fit into a short op-ed (and I try not make too long a thread out of it :-).
2/ As many Irish and other EU commentators have long noted, Charles - who is rightly widely read and respected across the EU - seems to have long suggested that the other EU26 may not back Ireland in a final treaty crunch. In a straight geo-politics game he might be right, but...
3/...this has annoyed a few people because it goes to the heart of what the EU is, especially for Ireland. If the EU does not back Ireland on such an existential question - and yes folks, #Brexit is existential - then why should Ireland stay in the EU? Or any other small member?
Read 13 tweets
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Nina Schick
@NinaDSchick
1. New round of #Brexit talks in Brussels today & #Prexit behind us, let's take stock of what EU papers are saying in Ep 100 of 'Nothing Has Changed.' (Thread.)
2. France's @LesEchos says TM is "increasingly fragile." Notes, "Clearly, chances that outstanding Brexit issues are resolved" in this round of talks "are close to nill." lesechos.fr/monde/europe/0…
3. @LesEchos: "The increasingly fragility of TM is a subject that's preoccupying the minds of EU leaders, who prefer to negotiate with a strong leader."
Read 21 tweets

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