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Before everyone gets excited about the new Gantz-Lapid party "Blue-White" let's remember we were in a very similar situation 4 years ago. In 2015, there was also an alliance of 2 parties rivalling Likud. Zionist Union were level or ahead of Likud in the polls up to Election Day>>
In 2015 center-left votes split b/w Zionist Union & Yesh Atid. Result: Likud largest party by 6 seats & Netanyahu had a right-wing-religious majority. What's changed? Yesh Atid now in Gantz alliance which like Zionist Union is level with Likud in polls and Labor splits the votes>
So why should 2019 be different? The center-left is still split in two and Likud has the better chance of being the larger party and Netanyahu still has a majority behind him and a much clearer path to a coalition. Netanyahu is still on track for a 6th election victory. Unless..>
Unless 100-150 thousand "soft-right" voters decide that the Gantz-Lapid list is not that left-wing and they are just fed up with Bibi and won't vote again for any party that will support him. In such a scenario, Netanyahu loses his coalition, but Gantz doesn't get to be PM yet.>>
Netanyahu loses his coalition if 3 seats leave the right-bloc and vote for Gantz. It could happen. But Gantz won't have a center-left coalition because together with Labor and Meretz, he'll still have at most around 50 seats. And the Arab parties will not be joining a coalition>>
If Netanyahu loses his coalition, no-one has a coalition. Far-right and Haredi parties won't join a government led by Gantz and Lapid. The only party currently in coalition which could give Gantz a majority to become PM is Likud. Netanyahu won't join Gantz. But another Likudnik?>
The only conceivable way Gantz becomes PM is in a national-unity government with Likud, after Netanyahu's forced by the indictments to resign. Bottom line: Netanyahu still has better chances. The only viable alternative is Netanyahu leaving and a Gantz-Likud-Lapid-Labor coalition
