10 Vital Truths about Brexit
1. We need the EU more than the EU needs us. It will still have 27 members to trade with, and free trade deals with over 40 other countries, including Japan and Canada, with which to make up any economic loss. We will have nothing.
2. We have never truly understood the value of EU membership. That doesn't mean that it has no value, only that we've been too blind to see what was right under our noses. It's only now, when we're scrabbling to find fixes for everything we're about to lose, that the penny drops.
3. Brexit was about much more than economics, but that doesn't magically make the economic aspect of Brexit any less important. Our economy pays for EVERYTHING: free healthcare, schools, transport improvements, mental health care, help for homelessness, etc. etc. etc.
A weaker economy hurts EVERYONE. Not just the rich. Not just the banks and the financial sector. It hurts teachers and factory workers and carers and the unemployed and pensioners and children and every other group you can imagine. And Brexit WILL make our economy weaker, period.
4. We are weaker outside the EU than within. We are already seeing that demonstrated in our trade negotiation attempts, which have gone... disastrously. It's simple maths: a much smaller market of lower value is of less interest than a much bigger market of much greater value.
5. Once we're out, that's it, game over, the end. A fraction of a second after we leave, the damage will be irreversible. Why? Because there's no quick reversal. We would have to reapply to become members under Article 49, and that's subject to a huge stack of T&C, and a veto.
6. While it's perfectly true that countries thrive outside the EU, those countries got where they are through hundreds of years of gentle evolution and adaptation. None of them tore up all their international agreements and relationships, and had to start from scratch. We will.
7. WTO isn't the silver bullet it's made out to be. Yes, most countries are WTO members. They trade under WTO rules. But they don't trade ONLY under WTO rules. It's like cars have wheels, but they don't ONLY have wheels. Relying on WTO alone would devastate our advanced economy.
8. Brexit doesn't end on Brexit Day. Oh no, not by a long way. Brexit Day is just the end of the easy first phase. At that point, we're out - but we still have to negotiate our future relationship with the EU and the rest of the world.
The fights we've seen so far are NOTHING compared to what is to come once we're arguing over the detail of Brexit. What form of trade relationship do we want? Which treaties and organisations do we want to haggle our way back into? It's an almost endless task - decades at least.
Thanks to Brexit, the Government is at a standstill. Vital projects are being sidetracked or abandoned. Major scandals swept under the carpet. That's going to continue, and get worse. The chaos is just warming up. We will be living, breathing, dreaming Brexit, for generations.
9. The result of the referendum compells politicians to try and make a go of Brexit. But the facts of the situation, the specifics of our EU membership, make it inherently impossible for Brexit to be a success, regardless of who's doing the negotiating. Brexit itself is broken.
10. Brexit is our decision, our choice. It's what we're demanding - and what we're pushing for. The EU doesn't want us to leave. It would still have us as members in a heartbeat. We are inflicting this damage on ourselves. It's not the EU hurting us. Brexit is our fault. THE END.
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