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Brexit clouds lifting a little here in Egypt. If things happen (a big if), it's becoming clear *how* they'll happen. Provisional codicil is worked up alongside changes to future relationship. EU Council will agree — BUT ONLY on March 21/22 and ONLY if MPs have agreed it before 1/
I sketch the shape of this route out of the crisis here politico.eu/article/eu-bre…, but it's worth emphasising this is still a LONG SHOT. Requires MPs to back a conditional deal. Then almost guarantees an extension to get the deal through parliament 2/
End game?
1. Cooper-Boles passes
2. Cox agrees deal
3. Withdrawal Agreement amended by Cox passes Commons March 12
4. May asks for "technical extension" March 13
5. EU agrees Cox-amended WA March 21/22
6. UK ratifies new WA
7. UK puts WA into law
8. Brexit May 1-June 30?
Ends/
1. Cooper-Boles passes
2. Cox agrees deal
3. Withdrawal Agreement amended by Cox passes Commons March 12
4. May asks for "technical extension" March 13
5. EU agrees Cox-amended WA March 21/22
6. UK ratifies new WA
7. UK puts WA into law
8. Brexit May 1-June 30?
Ends/
