Thread by @charlyjsp

1) National broadcaster @yleuutiset asked Finnish party heads about their security policy views (internal and external) - elections on April 14th - some thoughts on it:

Bottom line: Consensus is pretty broad on many issues.

2) there is some spread on whether current conscript/national service system should be changed. Interestingly some parties that frequently speak of #genderequality don't think it applies here. See potential opening for 'call up' for everyone but service still voluntary for women.

3) All parties oppose idea of easing sanctions placed on #Russia, due to ongoing war in #Ukraine.

--> This view will not change (even if individual parliamentarians sometimes flirt with the idea), it is too central to the position #Finland has staked out in EU.

4) All parties (except National Coalition, conservative) explicitly support increasing the number of police from 7200 to 7850 (for a population of about 5.5m).

5) There is concern that #Finland has not prepared well enough for impacts of #climatechange, however, the specific concerns range from the global, to economic to migration, depending on the party.

--> Finland's comprehensive societal security approach helps here.

6) There is across the (political) spectrum support for financing and ensuring a credible national defence.

When asked about numbers of jets (next gov't will make decision on which fighters will replace current planes in 2021, to the tune of €7-10Bn), there are two camps:

6 cont'd) The number of planes in the public debate has been placed at 64 jets, and was baseline for RFQ.

Camp A: number not set in stone, could be fewer, it depends on whole system and capability.

CSP: True, could be a few fewer, but not a lot (reasoning recap later in thread)

6 cont'd)
Camp B: current fleet must be replaced in totality (originally 57 F18Cs & 7 F18Ds) as parliament agreed to do in 2017 'defence white paper' + due to size & Finnish geography.

CSP: True, FDF/FAF don't just make up these numbers.

6 cont'd) The discussion on number of fighters is a place holder, for a much needed broader societal discussion on what a modern war would look like, and what losses could be (on all sides).

A few thoughts on numbers: Obviously there is a serious discussion that should be had on why Finnish defence system looks like it does, why certain systems have a critical mass (for ex only 12 fighters would be worthless) etc, but it would require some more opening up...

If you break down why Finland needs X number of fighters, it looks like this:
1) 64-->45-51 in use at any time (70-80% in extremis ready rate is reasonable estimate based on int'l comparisons)
= 11-12 flights (of 4 planes)
2) Two diff op directions/foci
= 5-6 flights

3) To deny air supremacy (locally) on a 24/7 basis, requires 1-2 flights reloading/at ready, 1-2 flights returning from / going to area, 1-2 flights actually operating. = 3-6 flights being continuously available.
4) factor in inevitable losses, over weeks/months.
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