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Brexit Probability tracker time, but first some thoughts about where we are. All indications are to expect no substantive changes from Brussels talks, so the vote in 2 weeks time is going to be on the deal already rejected by 230. 1/
There's lots of talk about opposition to the deal softening, and some evidence of it happening. But when I see the informed sources around Parliament with their numbers, even on the best case the PM falls some way short of passing the deal 2/
This will be followed by votes on no-deal and seeking extension. For me, the mainstream Conservative Brexit Delivery Group pressing against no-deal is then significant. This reduces the chances of no-deal, certainly in March 3/
I also think Labour's position is cleverer than has been credited. They are potentially giving the PM two ways out, either for a softer Brexit, or for her deal and a referendum. If no-deal falls, is she forced in one of these directions 4/ theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
That being said, the path from now to any outcome still looks difficult, and that is reflected in the tracker. The PM's deal remains the most likely, but at 35% that still isn't very likely. No-deal is down, Customs Union or referendum up a bit. Delay, not tracked, likely 5/ 
Unfortunately this all means the uncertainty probably continues right through March. Parliament votes, following week European Council agrees conditions for extension, Parliament votes again last week of March is best guess. Hang on in there.
And here's the trend 6/ end
And here's the trend 6/ end
