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The significance of tonight's votes on Brexit do not seem to have been fully grasped, so let's have a go at the analysis... 1/ (sorry another thread)
First, the UK will almost certainly not leave the EU in two and half weeks time. Of course it's possible the EU turns down an extension, but with the PM having outlined two realistic options for extension, I don't think they will. 2/
Next, it is in the balance as to whether we leave at the end of June with the PM's deal or not. A third meaningful vote will be held next week, and there will be huge pressure on MPs to back Brexit and see the referendum result honoured... but 3/
For the ERG, there could be an incentive to turn the deal down again, win the Conservative leadership, and then push for a different or no deal. Ultimately no-deal is not yet off the agenda, but it is for the time being 4/
Also, it might not be a good look for MPs having turned down the deal twice as inadequate to then pass it as not so bad after all. That is something those previously opposed will have to think about in the next week 5/
If the meaningful vote fails next week tomorrow's motion suggests, rightly, a longer extension will be needed. Credit for once to the PM, as far as I can see this is the right motion for tomorrow, though of course amendments may be passed 6/
And in the end it all came down to the Spelman amendment, which many Conservative moderates did not want to put, passing by four votes. Had it failed, the meaningful vote next week would have been PM's deal v no-deal 7/
(Brief interlude, I'm noting in my replies an argument the EU Member States will not agree to an extension because of Italy, Hungary, and Poland. I doubt this will be the case, although unanimity is required, but admittedly it is not certain) 8/
So to summarise, all options are still on the table, and those arguing ERG mucked up are not right, they came within four votes of keeping no-deal on the table, and it still isn't totally impossible. And a big choice awaits MPs next week 9/ end
PS: Another reminder that ERG backing the PM's deal does not mean it passes unless DUP and a handful of Labour also do so. Could happen, but I think on balance I think it will fail again.
