Thread by @trengriffin

1/ "technology has broken entry barriers and will structurally pressure margins in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry." You can see this in the grocery- big brands are no longer in the prime eye level shelf space. Brands like Beecher's Cheese are.

braziljournal.com/enrique-abeyta…

2/ "If you go to a supermarket, you see hundreds of new brands in the supermarket shelf, the client doesn’t want to leave their house anymore.. We bought brands we thought would last forever. We borrowed a lot of cheap money because money was cheap...."

braziljournal.com/jorge-paulo-le…

3/ "When TV advertising first arrived ...if you were Procter & Gamble you could afford the very expensive cost of network television because you were selling so damn many cans and bottles. Some little guy couldn't." Charlie Munger old.ycombinator.com/munger.html

Not the same world now.

4/ "Few things in business like this have a single cause: "Big Food have figured out the 3G playbook and are running it themselves before 3G can do it to them. Opportunities just aren’t there like they were when 3G was a little-known outfit from Brazil." google.com/amp/amp.timein…

5/ Kraft is being hit by a lollapalooza- Lower cost of entry, changing tastes, different means of creating brands, non brand methods of assessing quality, etc. Brands like Beecher's Cheese can use methods like food as theater and produce new products faster. Non orange Mac & 🧀