Thread by @pmdfoster

So #Brexit has become a game of semantics.

So Sir Graham Brady wants " legally binding guarantee that the Irish backstop could only be temporary."

But what does that mean? /1

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6…

Is he leaving space to accept the Tusk-Junker letter of Jan 14 being written into a codicil?

That's been on offer for a while. Article 50 (and the backstop) are by definition "temporary".

BUT.../2

consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

That’s a LONG way from the list reported by @ShippersUnbound this morning and described by his headline writers as “peace terms” (ho ho ho) /3

There's a pretty big gap between the two.....which is reflected in the gap between the 20 diehard ERG'ers on the one hand and the 118th softest MP who voted against the May deal on the other.

How many does Tusk-Juncker letter + Cox rhetoric deliver?/4

There is woollyness on the other side too - @PatLeahyIT on the Irish Times says Irish govt prepared to move - but what does that mean? Not clear from the below. But it’s obv a long way short of ERG demands set out today. /5

@PatLeahyIT One issue (which I set out here) is when/if the Irish are incentivised to move before March 12 - I'm not sure they really are. /6

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1101490328907976705

@PatLeahyIT At the heart of all this semantic chicanery is a real substance issue - which is that if the UK cannot demonstrate 'alternative arrangements' work, then the only way out of the bakcstop is via a Customs Union the ERG abhors. /7

@PatLeahyIT They are not really wrong on this, which is why @HenryNewman attempt to gloss/skate over the issue in the Sunday Telegraph is valiant....but I'm not sure will carry enough of the 118 over the line./8

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman Fleshing out these alternative arrangements (or rather the process by which they will sincerely sought after) will form a key plank of the Cox seduction package. /9

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman BUT as the ERG/Brexiteers know, without a hard time-limit/Unilateral exit mechanism, the EU and Irish won't be incentivised to move.

@danielmgmoylan sets out the 'trap' very clearly here. Worth reading. /10

brexitcentral.com/northern-irish…

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan I'm not honestly sure that there's enough semantic wiggle-room to bring these people round.

It's why, if it all comes crashing down, history will say @theresa_may biggest mistake was not to win and settle the Customs Union argument /11

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may May openly took the hit on services to address Free Movement concerns, but was disengenuous on the Customs Union/Goods part and the Irish border.

She allowed "freedom" to come to mean "leaving the Customs Union". Which is nuts. /12

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may Have done long threads on why this is so (and accept @awstojanovic contention that purely economically we'd be better prioritising services/SM membership - but givven Free Movement point above that ship has sailed) but....just remember.../13

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may @awstojanovic If the UK did trade deals with Anglosphere (UK, Oz, Can, NZ) AND the BRIICS, the best estimate is an additional GDP growth 0.2%-0.4% (NIESR, LSE et al). /14

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may @awstojanovic As @LiamFox 's risible attempts at even rolling over trade deals has shown, the buccaneer agenda conflates the sovereignty and trade agendas with disastrous effect. /15

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may @awstojanovic @LiamFox How did it ever become a 'thing' that the reason for leaving the EU (that trade behemoth and gravity-maker) was to make the UK a trade power again? /16

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may @awstojanovic @LiamFox Look at the response to USTR's trade agenda with UK published last week?

As I reported UK will unilateraly align with EU on food and agri standards in event of a 'no deal' - which tells you all you need to know about realities of trade situation. /17

@PatLeahyIT @HenryNewman @danielmgmoylan @theresa_may @awstojanovic @LiamFox But the party, the voters, the leadership are too deep in the hole now to confront these fallacies....so were back to semantics and unicorn hunts.

We are skating on the thinnest of ice. /ENDS