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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
No, because I understand that rates of change tell you very little about overall importance.

Also, *insert Father Ted big, far away gif*.

brexitcentral.com/eu-economic-po…
Last year my trade with Farawayia grew from £10 to £30. It increased by 200%.

My trade with Nearbyia grew from £40000000 to £4500000. It increased by 12.5%.
(Obviously the missing zero from ‘£45000000’ in the above tweet was deliberate and a test to see who is being observant. *cough*)
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
If the UK wants a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU then it can have it, but only in respect of GB. Northern Ireland would requires a deeper relationship, hence the backstop.
(I know I say this a lot, but it really doesn't seem to have sunk in here in Westminster, even now.)
A very useful chart indeed!
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
If we unilaterally remove tariffs because of no deal aggregate consumer prices will not fall. #timestamp
(However they might not rise as much as they would otherwise. Maybe.)
If it comes about and I’m wrong feel free to remind me. But remember aggregate consumer prices would need to be lower than they are now. (If I was to be really mean I’d stipulate lower than pre-referendum)
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Excellent new report just published by Northern Ireland's economic department looking at Brexit and services.

Here's their estimates of the barriers facing NI services exporters (as tariff value equivalent) of being outside of the single market.

economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…
There's no reason why this wouldn't be much the same for the whole UK. And in terms of impact it matches up with my own work on the post-Brexit impact on services trade.

cer.eu/sites/default/…
As always, the single market in services does actually exist, contrary to received wisdom here in the UK.
Read 4 tweets

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#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
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