Profile picture
Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Excellent new report just published by Northern Ireland's economic department looking at Brexit and services.

Here's their estimates of the barriers facing NI services exporters (as tariff value equivalent) of being outside of the single market.

economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…
There's no reason why this wouldn't be much the same for the whole UK. And in terms of impact it matches up with my own work on the post-Brexit impact on services trade.

cer.eu/sites/default/…
As always, the single market in services does actually exist, contrary to received wisdom here in the UK.
If the longer NI report is a bit much for you, here is the summary doc: economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…

And here is the explanatory slide pack: economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Sam Lowe
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

Profile picture
Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
If the UK wants a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU then it can have it, but only in respect of GB. Northern Ireland would requires a deeper relationship, hence the backstop.
(I know I say this a lot, but it really doesn't seem to have sunk in here in Westminster, even now.)
A very useful chart indeed!
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
If we unilaterally remove tariffs because of no deal aggregate consumer prices will not fall. #timestamp
(However they might not rise as much as they would otherwise. Maybe.)
If it comes about and I’m wrong feel free to remind me. But remember aggregate consumer prices would need to be lower than they are now. (If I was to be really mean I’d stipulate lower than pre-referendum)
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
No, because I understand that rates of change tell you very little about overall importance.

Also, *insert Father Ted big, far away gif*.

brexitcentral.com/eu-economic-po…
Last year my trade with Farawayia grew from £10 to £30. It increased by 200%.

My trade with Nearbyia grew from £40000000 to £4500000. It increased by 12.5%.
(Obviously the missing zero from ‘£45000000’ in the above tweet was deliberate and a test to see who is being observant. *cough*)
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Northern Irish businesses are being left in the lurch by #Brexit - what does that mean? /1

@ninusinessinfo, @UlsterBusiness, @NIChamberofCommerce, @FBS_NI @RetailNI @CBI_NI @InvestNI @JPCampbellBiz @NIBusiness @RetailNI @julianoneill @boardroom_ni ⁦ telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
Just spent three days on the road talking to NI business - a haulier, an engineering firm, a concrete business, a ship fitters...

What does Westminster #Brexit impasse mean when denominated in real world currency? /2
It means that haulage company may decide to invest heavily in the Republic to continue to serve its customers - which means some of their 200 employees in the North are likely to lose their jobs. They will also pay more of their taxes in Dublin, not to the Exchequer in London./3
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Here's a thread on the #Brexit #Backstop, the #Border and NI/IRL,
in which I try to succinctly explain why I think the UK govt has got itself in an unnecessary pickle on this one,
& how it might get out of it.

1/11
The Protocol is intended as ‘insurance’ in case a future UK-EU agreement is insufficient to meet the commitments made in the Joint Report bit.ly/2Bgjvj6. In that sense it is *already* conditional & envisaged as temporary.
It is a backstop, not a precursor.

2/11
The Protocol is the EU showing most flexibility (cherrypicking) *for* Northern Ireland in the very areas that the UK is finding hard to swallow, i.e. NI being in a Common Regulatory Area and the Customs Territory of the EU.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
Profile picture
John Rogan
@JRogan3000
I just published “Brexit Impact Studies (from Maria Ana Cataluna).” medium.com/p/brexit-impac…
have published a #NoDealBrexit study. I'll put a link in the Medium article. #brexitimpactreports #BrexitImpactStudies #Brexit #DavidDavis
go.pardot.com/l/372682/2017-…
published "Building Solidarity Across Borders: Gibraltar and Brexit" (July 17) icymi.
#BrexitImpactReports #BrexitImpactStudies #Brexit
unitetheunion.org/uploaded/docum…
Read 44 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #IrelandsFuture #StopBrexit #BrexitReports #EUCO #inLimbo #brexit #DExEU #backstop #NoDealBrexit #WhitePaper #CustomsBill #NI #BrexitImpactStudies #border #BDK18 #WTOBrexit #SOS #KeepTheFaith #BrexitBorder #Remain #BrexitBorderlands #Backstop #efta #GE2017
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!