Thread by @julianzelizer

For all the pundits (including myself) who are reminding readers that the Watergate hearings and investigation changed public opinion about President Nixon in 1973/1974, there is an important caveat.

Presidential impeachment meant something very different to Americans living in 1974 than it does in 2019.

In other words, when Congress considered impeaching President Nixon, the last impeachment proceeding had been President Andrew Johnson (1868).

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…

Today, many Americans can remember Presidents Nixon’s downfall and the trauma that it caused. Trust in government, for instance, has never recovered.

@KevinMKruse and I cover the multi-decade fallout in #FaultLines @wwnorton

Even more Americans today can remember President Bill Clinton’s impeachment process, which a majority saw as a partisan campaign by the House Republicans under Speaker Gingrich and the product of an overzealous Independent Prosecutor who leaned to the right.

The frustration was so great that Congress allowed the Independent Counsel law to expire, a key reform of the post-Watergate era.

For Democrats to change public opinion on this issue, and to show that the impeachment process is legitimate and necessary, they will have to overcome the fears caused by these powerful memories.

And of course, there is the Fox News and political polarization angle. Harder to change opinion these days.

Part of the outcome will depend on the facts discovered through the investigation. Another part will depend on how Democrats like @RepJerryNadler actually handle the process. They need to build support for the process itself, not just the findings.

Most important, Democrats have to handle the investigation on its own terms. The goal should be to hold leaders accountable and to protect our cherished institutions—not to game out how the politics will unfold.

But point 1 is the issue for the politics of impeachment. Again, it is just a factor Democrats will be considering as they figure out what comes next. The facts on the ground seem pretty clear though. I have a @CNNOpinion about this on the way.