Thread by @AndrewSErickson

"I want to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of open societies.

…I’ll focus on #China, where President #XiJinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"Xi is trying to consolidate all the available info about a person into a centralized database to create a 'social credit system'..people will be evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a threat to the 1-party state. People will then be treated accordingly."

"#China is not the only #authoritarian regime in the world, but it is undoubtedly the #wealthiest, #strongest & most developed in machine learning & #AI.

This makes #Xi the #most #dangerous #opponent of those who believe in the concept of #OpenSociety."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"My deep concern for this issue arises from my personal history. I was born in Hungary in 1930&..am Jewish.I was 13 yo when the Germans occupied Hungary &started deporting Jews to extermination camps.I was very fortunate because my father understood the nature of the Nazi regime"

"1944 was the formative #experience of my life. I learned at an early age how important it is what kind of #political #regime prevails. When the Nazi regime was replaced by Soviet occupation, I left Hungary as soon as I could and found refuge in England."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"When I first started visiting #China, I met many people in positions of power who were fervent believers in the #principles of #OpenSociety. In their youth, they had been deported to the countryside to be re-educated. ... We had all been on the receiving end of a #dictatorship."

"The committed defenders of #OpenSociety in #China, who are around my age, have mostly retired, and younger people, who are dependent on Xi for promotion, have taken their place. ...#Xi remains the #supreme #leader, possibly for his lifetime."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"I have been concentrating on #China, but open societies have many more enemies, #Putin’s #Russia foremost among them. And the most dangerous scenario is one in which these enemies conspire with, and learn... to oppress their people more effectively. What can we do to stop them?"

"I want to focus on what I consider the most important question for open societies: what will happen in China? Only the Chinese people can answer the question. All we can do is to draw a sharp distinction between them & Xi. Since Xi has declared his hostility to open society...."

"#Xi presents #China as a role model for other countries to emulate, but he’s facing criticism abroad as well. His Belt and Road Initiative (#BRI) has been in operation long enough to reveal its deficiencies. For one thing, it was designed to promote the interests of China...."

"not the interests of the recipient countries. Moreover, its ambitious infrastructure projects were financed mainly by loans, not by grants &foreign officials were often bribed to accept them..many of these projects have proven to be economically unsound." project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"The iconic case is in Sri Lanka.China loaned..the money to pay China to build a port that serves China’s strategic interests.But the port failed to attract sufficient commercial traffic to enable the Sri Lankans to service the debt,enabling China to take possession of the port."

"#Malaysia is leading the pushback. The previous government, headed by #Najib Razak, #SoldOut to #China. But in May 2018, Najib was voted out of office by a coalition led by Mahathir Mohamed. Mahathir’s government immediately stopped several big [PRC] infrastructure projects...."

"one thing became evident:China intends to use the BRI for military purposes as well. All of these setbacks have forced Xi to modify his attitude toward the BRI..'vanity projects' will be shunned..the PD warned that projects should serve the interests of the recipient countries."

"Customers are now forewarned, & several of them, ranging from Sierra Leone to Ecuador, are questioning or renegotiating projects. Xi has also stopped talking about 'Made in China 2025,' which had been the centerpiece of his self-promotion a year earlier." project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"Most important, the US government has now identified #China as a ‘#strategic #rival.’

…this decision was the result of a carefully prepared strategic plan

…a China policy adopted by the agencies of the administration..."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"and overseen by the National Security Council Asian affairs adviser, Matthew Pottinger, and others. The policy was outlined in a seminal speech by @VP Vice President Mike Pence on October 4, 2018."

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"there are clear indications that a broad-based economic decline is in the making in China...The unspoken social contract in China is built on steadily rising living standards. The unspoken social contract in China is built on steadily rising living stds." project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"If the decline in the Chi.economy &stock market is severe enough, this social contract may be undermined, &even the business community may end up opposing Xi.Such a downturn could also sound the BRI’s death knell,because Xi may run out of resources [for] lossmaking investments."

"On the broader question of global #Internet governance, there is an undeclared struggle between #China and the West. China wants to dictate the #rules and #procedures that govern the #digital #economy by dominating the developing world with its new #platforms and #technologies."

"This is a #threat to the #freedom of the #Internet and #OpenSociety itself.

Last year, I still believed that #China ought to be more deeply embedded in the institutions of global governance, but #Xi’s #behavior since then has #changed #my #opinion."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…

"My view now is that... the US should focus on #China; instead of letting #ZTE and #Huawei off lightly, it needs to #crack #down on them #harshly. If these companies came to #dominate the #5G market, they would present an #unacceptable #security #risk for the rest of the world."