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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
NEW: Here Are The Two New Ideas Geoffrey Cox Presented To The EU buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
In addition to the "arbitration panel", which many have heard of, Cox presented the idea of a "mini backstop" to Barnier yesterday that would limit the mechanism to only cover elements that relate to border infrastructure, EU27 ambassadors were told today
Both ideas were rejected. Ambassadors were told that the UK is looking for ways to lower the bar to exit the backstop, seeking legal solutions to a political problem, and, in effect, still asking for a unilateral exit mechanism
The diplomats were told that the EU now awaits fresh proposals, and talks could drag into the weekend, with Theresa May heading to Brussels as late as Monday, should an agreement be reached
Finally, the EU is getting ready for the “blame game”, and accusations of rigidity from British MPs, if next Tuesday’s vote fails.

Full story: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
The FT’s @alexebarker has more on the dismay and anger at Cox’s “mini-backstop” concept - from this morning’s @ftbrussels newsletter (which you should all sign up to):
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
Extending article 50 now takes centre stage. How the process works, the legal opinions, the view at the highest level of the European Commission, and the thinking in Europe’s major capitals: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
As one diplomat told me, the 27 will be asked to respond to an “existential question” next week. The terms for extending article 50 will ultimately be a political decision and calculation for the leaders.
A few observations based on conservations with senior officials in Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere in Europe, and how the leaders have handled Brexit thus far:

1) Purpose of extension will be more important than length of extension. Nobody wants two years of the same
Read 10 tweets
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
NEW: The EU thinks that delaying Brexit makes sense only in three scenarios:

1) prepare for no deal
2) to ratify the withdrawal agreement
3) politics: an election or referendum

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
The assessment is contained in a memo which sets out the thinking at the highest level of the European Commission. EU27 ambassadors were briefed on its content today.

There is no easy solution. EU27 views are mixed. Ultimately, it will be a political decision for the 27
1) an extension beyond May is legally complicated
2) a long extension risks providing the UK with better terms than transition & damage functioning of EU
3) an election or a referendum would solve little
4) multiple short extensions would be the worst case scenario
Read 8 tweets
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
A few thoughts:

1) the chances of a "softer Brexit" are lower than most seem to assume. It's more complicated than MPs raising their hands once

2) chances of no deal, possibly after a short extension, are higher for the same reason - you can't just "take no deal off the table"
Why? Just think about today's debate. 17 days to Brexit and:

Some MPs are delusional, calling for what is basically the deal without the backstop

Others seem to assume the 27 will just grant an extension out of pity

And Corbyn is calling for an election
In short, the idea that MPs will come up with a plan within the next two weeks that is both backed by a stable majority and is acceptable to the EU27 is possible but should not be taken for granted.
Read 3 tweets

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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
Fascinating line in @AlbertoNardelli scoop: "Cox proposed a new 'mini backstop' that would limit the mechanism to only elements that relate to border infrastructure", but this was "rejected by Barnier". So, in Barnier's view, what *is* the backstop for?
buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
The backstop itself says that its purpose is to eliminate "physical infrastructure" and "related checks and controls", and also to protect "North-South cooperation". But all that could mean *literally anything*. big question is: what does it really mean?
thetimes.co.uk/article/eurosc…
Tory MPs like @DominicRaab/@DavidDavisMP think the EU has weaponised peace in NI to bind UK to the EU's economic space. Tend to think that's wrong. But here are all areas of "North South cooperation". Can EU explain how changes to each of them threatens the Good Friday Agreement?
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Alex Wickham
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NEW: Tory MP Christopher Chope (who previously objected to the upskirting bill) is branded an “embarrassment to your party and humanity” after indicating he will block new laws on female genital mutilation this afternoon

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
Anti-FGM campaigners spent the week begging Christopher Chope via text message not to block the bill. He wouldn't speak to them on the phone. Chope complained they were subjecting him to “verbal abuse”. buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…
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Trump: Day 677
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Karol 🌿
@karolcummins
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Can Okar
@canokar
EU: Here are your two options.
UK: What about this third option?
EU: We told you at the very start that could never happen.
UK: But your two options are impossible for us.
EU: They are your options.
UK: But what about that third option?
EU: Are you listening?
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Remainers: We told you Northern Ireland was a massive issue.
Brexiters: Technology!
R: But that's still a border.
B: Sovereignty. Anyway, we'll go for a No Deal if unsolved.
R: How will No Deal help?
B: It's better than a bad deal.
R: ... ... ...
Also back in the UK:

R: Can we at least have a second referendum to check if this is still what people want?
B: No, that would be undemocratic.
R: How can a vote asking people what they think be undemocratic?
B: Because we decided already and we'll riot if there is another vote.
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

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Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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