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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A few thoughts:

1) the chances of a "softer Brexit" are lower than most seem to assume. It's more complicated than MPs raising their hands once

2) chances of no deal, possibly after a short extension, are higher for the same reason - you can't just "take no deal off the table"
Why? Just think about today's debate. 17 days to Brexit and:

Some MPs are delusional, calling for what is basically the deal without the backstop

Others seem to assume the 27 will just grant an extension out of pity

And Corbyn is calling for an election
In short, the idea that MPs will come up with a plan within the next two weeks that is both backed by a stable majority and is acceptable to the EU27 is possible but should not be taken for granted.
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
1. Let’s assume that the reason for extending article 50 is to provide the UK with the space & time to revisit its redlines, and the two sides to then rework the political declaration.

This still leaves EU27 with the question of length - short or long extension.
2. Argument for short extension: enough time for MPs to hold indicative votes, and for the withdrawal agreement to then pass on the basis of the two sides making commitments on the effects of the results of those votes being implemented. eg when UK implements X then Y happens
3. Long extension argument: UK MPs don’t have a proven track record of making quick decisions. They need more time. The risk in this scenario is political: regardless of the reasons for an extension granted today, these could be disrupted by an election, a new gov’t & parliament.
Read 4 tweets
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
I don’t see why the 27 should extend A50 beyond July 1. Doesn’t mean they won’t. But it would be like booting the ball up the pitch, hoping in a lucky knock. On the basis of team UK performance so far, it would be wishful thinking. Risks more than just prolonged uncertainty in EU
Not advocating a position, but simply looking at evidence & facts available (buzzfeed.com/albertonardell… & ft.com/content/030dce…) + discussions between EU27 ambos (eg conditionality is a blunt argument), long extension would mostly be a political decision in hope something happens
*goes back to trying to enjoy weekend away from Brexit*
Read 3 tweets
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
Extending article 50 now takes centre stage. How the process works, the legal opinions, the view at the highest level of the European Commission, and the thinking in Europe’s major capitals: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
As one diplomat told me, the 27 will be asked to respond to an “existential question” next week. The terms for extending article 50 will ultimately be a political decision and calculation for the leaders.
A few observations based on conservations with senior officials in Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere in Europe, and how the leaders have handled Brexit thus far:

1) Purpose of extension will be more important than length of extension. Nobody wants two years of the same
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right #Brexit peeps, what is going on? What happens next?

Short answer is its all pretty fluid, but here's what I think I know after usual chats with both etc (1/thread)
May will ask for extension to June 30, per reports.

Less clear if she will also say UK prepared to 'no deal' on June 30. That might be a key omission to watch, on which more later.

So will the EU agree? /2
Not necessarily. As @adamfleming warned this AM - and later confirmed by @JunckerEU interview - EU may say a short extension is "conditional" on May passive her deal next week (presumed new vote Mon or Tues)

That would be a reason for a short extension/3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU countries’ position on #Brexit delay being described to me still as a “cacophony” - some for short, others for long, some for strict conditions, others more relaxed BUT /1
EU decision on extension depends a) on what PM asks for b) on EU leaders once in a room together Thurs. Fair to say: all options stil on table and EU leaders want to avoid no deal. There will be no EU “no” to an extension request /2
There are legal and political issues mixed up in EU’s extension decision: /3
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
In this thread, we would like to address a few brexit issues. But before we do, we would like you to look up the terms 'Potemkin Village' and 'force multiplier' #brexit
2/ In the UK, there has *NEVER* been a demand for a hard brexit. @_SimonBarnett can get you some stats on this. And the Tory backbench MPs who kept the flame of euroscepticism alive for decades talked about a Swiss style deal with the EU or a Norway deal, an FTA at the least.
3/ But then in a approximately 11 year period a perfect storm grew - A: the EU pushed for more treaty powers B: The EU wished to expand and incorporate new member states C: The media started reporting more about interfering "Brussels Bureaucrats".
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
High level EU official tells me the PM is « wily »with her three day vote plan for mid March. Says with her timetable she’s turning up pressure on Brexiteers, Labour and the EU too /1
EU now can’t wait till 21 March summit to make offer on backstop in attempt to stop PM coming back for more. Will now have to make an ‘offer’ in time for 12 March meaningful vote /2
EU + UK sources say they’re in same ‘landing zone’ on backstop. EU knows MP’s want legally-binding assurances UK won’t end up ‘trapped’ in backstop customs union with EU. BUT same problem remains: EU happy to make clarifications, resisting introducing changes eg get-out clause /3
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
Thought I'd offer a few thoughts as to how this whole #brexit business is so bitterly divisive to the extent that foreign diplomats liken the divisions as being akin to that preceding civil war
For one thing there simply is no middle ground any soft #brexit means losing any say over the rules we still have to obey maybots duff deal was an attempt at compromise and was blown away as a worse version of the status quo.
#brexit also tears up the democratic social contract for both sides. Any democracy relies on all parties accepting the result of a vote but any campaign must also be conducted within the law
Read 17 tweets

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