Thread by @AlbertoNardelli

Extending article 50 now takes centre stage. How the process works, the legal opinions, the view at the highest level of the European Commission, and the thinking in Europe’s major capitals: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

As one diplomat told me, the 27 will be asked to respond to an “existential question” next week. The terms for extending article 50 will ultimately be a political decision and calculation for the leaders.

A few observations based on conservations with senior officials in Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere in Europe, and how the leaders have handled Brexit thus far:

1) Purpose of extension will be more important than length of extension. Nobody wants two years of the same

2) Don’t confuse semantics and mannerism with substance. On Brexit, Macron and Merkel have always been less apart than may seem. EU27 position will ultimately fall somewhere between their two views

3) The Commission view matters. Discussions on reaching no-deal positions are a good example of this. However, unlike previous moments in this process, there is less prep and runway on EU27 side here. The mood among the 27 leaders in the room on the day will be important

4) And throughout this process, if anything, the 27 have been tougher than EU institutions (December EUCO conclusions the most recent example. Another: several member states were not happy with UK-wide customs element in backstop).

5) There are legal considerations (i.e. EU elections, and UK participation in EU institutions), but also big political questions (UK MEPs, “a Boris Johnson PM”, domestic politics in 27 countries, importance of close future relationship with UK etc)

6) Barnier’s opinion will be important. The leaders trust him (for example, he was instrumental in forming an EU27 view on Chequers)

7) Finally, my sense is that the longer the extension the clearer its purpose must be. This will not be a can-kicking exercise.

Full story: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

ps an example of reasons for longer A50 extension: