Thread by @AlbertoNardelli

NEW: The EU thinks that delaying Brexit makes sense only in three scenarios:

1) prepare for no deal
2) to ratify the withdrawal agreement
3) politics: an election or referendum

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

The assessment is contained in a memo which sets out the thinking at the highest level of the European Commission. EU27 ambassadors were briefed on its content today.

There is no easy solution. EU27 views are mixed. Ultimately, it will be a political decision for the 27

1) an extension beyond May is legally complicated
2) a long extension risks providing the UK with better terms than transition & damage functioning of EU
3) an election or a referendum would solve little
4) multiple short extensions would be the worst case scenario

I have also spoken to multiple EU27 officials & diplomats. Leaders have different views, but as one diplomat notes, throughout the Brexit process the leaders, if anything, have taken a tougher stance than the EU

Although the 27 leaders will probably have to allow an extension of article 50 if the UK wants to hold and election or a referendum, several EU leaders, do not think a referendum would be a good idea, and an election would solve little.

Finally, the legals aspects of prolonging article 50 are complicated. But, ultimately, this will be about political calculations for the 27 buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

A few additional points:

A50 could be extended to give more time to prepare for now deal ≠ it will. Case against: “We are prepared, why should we give more time, this would create a de facto transition period”

An interesting procedural nugget – May could hold a vote on the WA any time before Brexit day. EU27 could politically and conditionally agree to a short extension at EUCO, and then implement decision by written procedure on March 29th