Thread by @ElFrostyOrange

THREAD: My thoughts on Frank de Boer’s system and the one major concern I have with how it fits in Atlanta.

Spoiler - it’s not the formation or the wingbacks.

Over the offseason I went back and watched as much of Frank de Boer’s old Ajax teams as was available on YouTube. Ajax’s team channel actually had really good semi-extended highlights of each match for most seasons.

Let’s start with the formation, as this seems to be everyone’s main talking point. There is a common thought out there that FDB was successful at Ajax using a 4-3-3 and that he is now unsuccessful because he’s using a 3-4-3. I don’t necessarily agree with this line of thinking.

The main reason is because FDB’s 4-3-3 was extremely similar to his 3-4-3. He operated with a 6 and two 8’s in the 4-3-3, with the 6 dropping back in between the CB’s in possession and the outside backs pushing forward.

This is a common tactic for possession teams, with the most obvious reference being Busquets at Barcelona, and even one Tata used heavily in 2017 (and somewhat in 2018 when playing a 4-2-3-1) with Larentowicz dropping back and Carmona playing the 8.

When the 6 drops back and the outside backs push up, its very similar to a 3-4-3. One of my big concerns, which is tied to my largest concern, is that teams that play this way and want to possess the ball typically high press to get it back.

Side note: Other teams have had success playing deep in 3-4-3 (really a 5-4-1) and then primarily hitting on the counter (see 2016/17 Chelsea), but I’m going to focus on possession for the purpose of this thread since FDB has given zero indication this is how his teams will play.

Back to the high press/possession relationship: Possession team’s that drop that 6 back typically press to get the ball back when it is turned over. This creates transition opportunities on turnovers, and allows the 6 to provide extra defensive cover when the press is broken.

If the press is broken and you eventually win the ball back in your own defensive third, that’s when possession teams will cycle it around. In my opinion you can make the argument possession is just as much a defensive tactic as it is offensive.

That is to say possession can allow you to create opportunities going forward, but also control the openness and pace of the game, and in doing so, limit your opponents attack.

FDB’s system has unique principles you rarely see. He wants to control possession, but doesn’t want to immediately press on turnovers.

For the most part, this style eliminates the opportunity for chances in transition as 1) you aren’t forcing turnovers high up the field and 2) after winning the ball back deep emphasis is placed on controlling it rather than countering (see Chelsea 2016/17 note).

When you eliminate transition opportunities, you obviously are relying on creating your open play chances almost entirely through possession. Teams have done this successfully too, with the most obvious example being 2010 Spain.

I have a theory that this style of possession attack can work at the highest level of the game (i.e. with a Iniesta/Xavi/Busquets midfield) but is not as effective as transitions at “lower” levels like MLS where players aren’t the best in the world and the talent gap is smaller.

I have zero evidence to support this theory though so I’ll save it for another day. Anyways, back to my biggest concern on FDB’s system in Atlanta.

Teams that attack almost solely through possession nearly all have one similar characteristic: the use of a false 9 at CF. This player drops deep to create intricate triangles with typically the dual 8’s and the wingers.

Watching FDB’s Ajax, the use of a false 9 was extremely evident. He was even criticized by fans for going so far as using midfielders at center forward.

The CF was crucial to dropping into the overloaded 2 man midfield (remember the 6 is dropped between the CBs) to help retain possession in meaningful areas and allow time for the outside backs to get forward and provide width in attack.

Who didn’t FDB have to play the False 9 at Crystal Palace? Christian Benteke. I think we can all agree that was doomed from the start. As a result the attack was borderline non existent An day FDB was famously fired after 6 games.

Who does Atlanta have to play this role? None other than Josef Martinez. Josef is the face of the club, one of the best players in the league, and an absolute animal in the box. What is
Josef not? Capable of playing as a false 9.

So that is my largest concern: That no matter how much time the players get to learn and gel into their roles, FDB’s system can not truly be played without a false 9 - and Josef is never going to be that player. It will get better, but I’m skeptical it ever gets good enough.

This is an obvious TLDR candidate, but I’d love to get the opinions (and ideally comforted by telling me I’m an idiot and wrong) of guys like @MattDoyle76 @bwarshaw14 @japatrick200 @JoshB914 @TiotalFootball on this