Thread by @SethAbramson

While I remain optimistic that Judge Jackson will next week give Paul Manafort a hefty consecutive sentence (up to 10 years), the reality is that Judge Ellis issued a *substantial* downward adjustment from the sentencing guidelines today, and gave no reason at *all* for doing so.

1/ In fact, Judge Ellis said that he was "surprised" that Manafort expressed "no remorse" for his crimes, which would've normally led court watchers to conclude Ellis would stick with the sentencing guidelines. So it does seem Ellis was sending a message here—but not to Manafort.

2/ One message Ellis has been sending for years is that he doesn't consider white-collar crimes—usually committed by rich white men—to be particularly serious. He *also* isn't happy that Mueller hasn't shown his cards yet—even though that's just Mueller doing his job responsibly.

3/ Judge Ellis said he gave Manafort "no credit" for any cooperation, and "no credit" for any acceptance of responsibility (as there wasn't any)...

...so what explains the *substantial* downward adjustment from what would have been warranted under federal sentencing guidelines?

4/ I tend to think—and as a lawyer always have—that trying to predict sentences is a fool's errand, so I didn't do so with Manafort, but I want to clarify that I *don't* expect Jackson to give Manafort 10 years consecutively. More likely is 6-8 concurrently or 2-5 consecutively.