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Forgot about this article I did 8 years ago but it's a pretty good read on the reliability of early primary polling. 53eig.ht/2HaGMpm
This is probably the key chart. Name recognition certainly *does* matter. Overall, though, it's probably both the case that (i) Biden and Bernie aren't especially impressive frontrunners and (ii) None of the low-name-recognition candidates are off to an amazing start either. 
Deleted an inaccurate follow-up tweet on this one. The polls I was looking at actually *were* for January thru June of the year before the election, e.g. the period we're in right now. So the data from that article is applicable to today.
