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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Forgot about this article I did 8 years ago but it's a pretty good read on the reliability of early primary polling. 53eig.ht/2HaGMpm
This is probably the key chart. Name recognition certainly *does* matter. Overall, though, it's probably both the case that (i) Biden and Bernie aren't especially impressive frontrunners and (ii) None of the low-name-recognition candidates are off to an amazing start either.
Deleted an inaccurate follow-up tweet on this one. The polls I was looking at actually *were* for January thru June of the year before the election, e.g. the period we're in right now. So the data from that article is applicable to today.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Some good stuff on FiveThirtyEight dot com this morning. First, on a new metric the Supreme Court is using to measure partisan gerrymandering: 53eig.ht/2F9zLSo
Next, @ameliatd on how the emoluments clause could turn out to cause problems for Trump after all: 53eig.ht/2We1xUR
And here's our region-by-region guide to the men's NCAA tournament: 53eig.ht/2TUbwkl
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
FINAL FOUR ODDS: East:
[1] Duke 53%
[2] Michigan St. 22%
[4] Va. Tech 9%
[6] Maryland 4%
[3] LSU 4%
[5] Miss. St. 3%
[7] Louisville 3%
53eig.ht/2Fkd6Eo
FINAL FOUR ODDS: Midwest:
[1] UNC 35%
[2] Kentucky 24%
[3] Houston 10%
[5] Auburn 10%
[4] Kansas 8%
[6] Iowa St. 6%
[7] Wofford 2%
[11] Ohio St. 1%
FINAL FOUR ODDS: South:
[1] Virginia 49%
[2] Tennessee 22%
[3] Purdue 10%
[6] Villanova 5%
[4] Kansas St. 4%
[5] Wisconsin 4%
[7] Cincinnati 3%
[12] Oregon 1%
Read 5 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Beto’s such a weird candidate, and the press coverage of him is also so weird (obsessive but currently quite cynical but also prone to big mood swings) that I think it’s probably best to stick to objective benchmarks (e.g. polls, fundraising) when analyzing his chances.
Is he signing top staffers? Getting endorsements? Drawing big audiences? These are fairly objective metrics too. Obviously, I'm in favor of objective measures generally, but there are some candidates for whom the "narrative" can get especially detached from reality.
That's why IMO the fundraising numbers—not a great sign that he hasn't released them yet (although I guess we'll see)—are more important than the hot takes. And so are the polls over the next few weeks. It's not that they tell you *that* much, but I don't trust the alternatives.
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 Why do patients with hyperbilirubinemia become jaundiced? Patients with hemochromatosis don’t get “scleral bronze”. Why does bilirubin “do" what it does?

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