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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I choose to infer that his numbers are probably disappointing.
It would be a good troll if the numbers were actually good and he delayed releasing them just to sort of draw the media offsides and fuck with their expectations, but I'm not really sure if his campaign has that gear.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
From what I can tell (the interface makes it hard to make these comparisons) the terms "Beto donate" and "O'Rourke donate" got ~5x LESS Google search traffic than Bernie/Sanders+donate in his first 24 hours. But they got ~5x MORE traffic than Kamala/Harris+donate on her 1st day.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Some slightly longer thoughts on the political upshot of the Mueller report. (Or more precisely, Barr's letter about the Mueller report.) 53eig.ht/2Oq5dzP
Obviously the headline is "this is good for Trump".

There's a range of uncertainty, though, given that we don't have the report yet—the Barr memo leaves a lot of questions unanswered—that runs from roughly "quite good indeed for Trump" to "meh".
For me, the safest conclusion is that a lot of political downside risk was removed from Trump's portfolio, in part because he got through the investigation without firing Mueller or pardoning anyone.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It seems like when people imply that the Mueller Report won't mean "expectations", that really has 4 distinct causes, which are fairly important to distinguish—
1. Excessive hope/excitement from certain Democrats that Mueller would bring Trump down
2. Incautious reporting & false scoops
3. A lot of bad stuff getting normalized just because the investigation has gone on for so long
4. Deliberate goalpost-shifting by the WH and others
These causes aren't in any particular order and I don't know what order I'd put them in. All of them seem indisputably relevant. It strikes me as funny though that a lot of people who complain about 1 & 2 are extremely guilty of 4 (goalpost-shifting). Undoubtedly the reverse too.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In breaking news situations, often feel torn between "there's no point in speculating since we know very little and there's a good chance we'll be wrong" and "we're all adults here and even relatively limited information can meaningfully affect our priors so let's not be prudes".
Like one thing you probably shouldn't be doing though is, rather than gently speculating, dunking on everyone based on the presumed contents of the report before it comes out. Folks who are doing are sort telling on themselves that they're not being very fact/evidence-driven.
Also, regardless of what the report says, people who have been wrong for 2.5 years about a whole bunch of Russia-related stuff probably shouldn't be taking victory laps touting their sagacity.
Read 3 tweets

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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
1) "A frame-up (frameup) or setup is the act of framing someone, that is, providing false evidence or false testimony in order to falsely prove someone guilty of a crime. ... Generally, the person who is framing someone else is the actual perpetrator."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frameup
2) You already know what a scapegoat is.
3) "Collusion is a secret cooperation or deceitful agreement in order to deceive others, although not necessary illegal, as a conspiracy."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collusion
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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
Out today! My new, chart-rich paper on trade, globalization & US public opinion:
cato.org/publications/f…
So now a thread on why I wrote this paper - the data for which were surprisingly difficult to gather (thanks, @pewresearch, @Gallup, @ChicagoCouncil, etc for the help!) - and what it reveals /2
The malleability of US public opinion on trade is something I first noticed years ago (and briefly discussed in this paper from 2011: cato.org/publications/f…). Trade polls have long fluctuated depending on politics, rhetoric & the economy. /3
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Dr Murphy
@DrMurphy11
'Bad Bot' (part II) by @DrMurphy11

The story of a dangerously flawed #eHealth AI Chatbot.

A THREAD about #HealthTech #Hype, #AI #Governance & #MedicalDevice #PatientSafety.

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This thread follows on from a prior thread ('Bad Bot' - part I) & picks up the Babylon story from the #BabylonAITest event which was held on the 27th June 2018.

'Bad Bot' (part I) - 👇 1/45
The #BabylonAITest event was held at @RCPLondon & promised to reveal to the world, Babylon's latest "ground breaking research" & "the most exciting advances in Artificial Intelligence".

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Philip A. Loring
@ConserveChange
1. In response to some aggressive challenges (#troll) on some of the statements I make in my recent @Ensia article, I thought it important to share the following points (thread)
2. Here’s the link to the article in question. ensia.com/voices/science/
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🕔SYUNSER🌀
@SLYUnser
Aaaaannndd.... just like that, my internet debate is over.

Name calling, insults... but no actual, real flow of knowledge from @AmeriGreece.

I should have yawned as Vachel did.. and just not bothered.

#Troll
Sorry.. distracted with PressBrief.. am back now.. catching up.
Yes, I've got the history.
But I ask again.. why is Putin in Syria?
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Centrism Fan Acct 🔹
@Wilson__Valdez
There are a lot of prominent people, who claim to be principled anti-war activists, who led us to believe that Hillary was the *real* threat, that should be absolutely ashamed to show their faces right now. Yet they're all pretending like it never happened.
None of this is surprising if you were paying attention & weren't looking to confirm your biases that #actually Trump might not be so bad (not as bad as Killary). Most of us saw the threat in real time & called it out. It wasn't subtle.
It's just so incredibly frustrating bc it was all so predictable. You demanded that every journalist & pundit who predicted the election results incorrectly be disgraced; yet this was infinitely more consequential. And yet, you've taken zero responsibility for your actions.
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