Thread by @snsachinnandu

Karnataka BJP list: initial take

No sitting MPs dropped so far
Chikkaballapur, Hassan, Chamarajanagar, Bellary really good choices
Chitradurga, messes up choice(was a seat with best chances to flip from Congress to BJP)

Former MP and tall Lingayat leader G S Basavaraju gets nominated from Tumkur, yet again. He had lost to Congress’ Muddanume Gowda in 2014.

This time with Cong giving up the seat for JDS, BJP can hope to win this seat with Lingayat-Brahmin-ST-Right hand SC consolidation!

From Chikkaballapura, BJP has nominated ex minister BN Bacchegowda. He had lost with a whisker in 2014 to Moily(OBC) with HDK taking a large chunk of Vokkaliga votes

This time with no JDS in fray, sympathy of last time and very high unpopularity of Moily, BJP has bright chances!

In Chamrajnagar, BJP has nominated former central minister and V Shrinivasa Prasad.

Incumbent Cong MP Dhruvanarayan is reasonably popular. But VSP is a tall leader with a good hold on this seat. Also, the numerous STs and Lingayats can turn the balance here in BJP’s favour.

BJP has nominated ex minister A Manju who recently defected from Cong to be its candidate in Hassan

Manju started his political career with BJP, was 1 of the MLAs from BJP when the party had a foothold in Hassan

Now with BJP rediscovering it’s strength here, he is back!

Manju, fighting against HD Devegowda in 2014, lost with ~1L votes. But the scenario was different with BJP’s CH Vijayashankar polling 1.6L votes

Manju also is from the same vokkaliga community as HDD. Also significant is that, Hassan has nearly 3 Lakh Lingayat voters!

With HDD leaving Hassan for his grandson & Manju as BJP candt, the tables have turned in Hassan

Traditional JDS-Con hagemony in Hassan means that, most traditional Congress votes(minus the minorities which are not very many anyways), might shift to BJP!

A remarkable phenomenon!

From Bellary, BJP has nominated Devendrappa, a very surprising choice

Devendrappa is a relative of the the influential Jarakiholi family of Gokak. The candidature is apparently fully backed by Reddys and Ramulu.

After losing the seat in bypolls last year, BJP looks to retake it

In Chitradurga, ex MLA from Anekal(Bangalore dist) and ex minister A Narayanaswamy is the BJP candidate

The current sitting MP from Cong, Chandrappa is also an outsider to Chitradurga, was parachuted from Chikamangaluru

So it’s a battle of two parachuted leaders in Chitradurga!

Of the seats it holds, BJP hasn’t announced candidates form only Koppal & Bangalore South.

Sitting MP Sanganna is likely to be repeated from Koppal. In B south, late Ananthakumar’s wife Tejaswini is almost certainly the party candt

All other sitting MPs have been renominated

BJP is yet to declare candidates for Chikodi, Raichur, Kolar, Mandya and B Rural.

BJP has bright chances to flip the first 2

In Kolar, a good candidate can offer a stiff resistance to Muniyappa who has started on a back foot with most of the alliance MLAs vowing to defeat him

Bangalore rural is probably the toughest seat for BJP in the entire state with complete domination by DK family. Party candidate is inconsequential here as of now

In Mandya, BJP is expected to not field a candidate and back Sumalatha who has rebelled against the alliance!

If BJP does in fact support Sumalatha in Mandya, on the ground, the contest will be JDS vs Cong+BJP!
The same case exists on ground in Hassan

The two footholds of Devegowda family will witness the forces of BJP and Congress(all but in name) coming together to uproot his dynasty!

Overall, no big surprises in Karnataka BJP list
Some really good choices, potentially gamechanging as far as state politics is concerned.

Once the alliance declares its list, I will give the final numbers for the state, seat by seat!

End

Congress has declared candidates for 18 of its 20 seats from Karnataka.

9 MPs renominated
No mention of B South, Dharwad(no suitable candidates)

Bidar- ex Minister Eshwar Khandre, will give tough fight
Davanagere- Shamanur Shivashankarappa(89 year old!) as a desperate measure!

5 highly vulnerable Congress MPs renominated:

Chikodi- Prakash Hukkeri
Raichur- BV Naik
Chitradurga- Chandrappa
Chikkaballapura- Moily
Kolar- KH Muniyappa

Kharge(Gulbarga), Dhruvanarayan(Chamarajanagar), Ugrappa(Bellary) too face challenging opponents

B Rural, only safe seat!

In high voltage Mysore seat, Sidramaiah has fielded his candidate CH Vijayashankar.

Vokkaliga consolidation against Sidda coteri had led to congress wash out in Mysore district last year. Vijayashankar is also from the Kuruba community and is likely to be hit by the same wave!

Con candts of Belagaum, Bagalkot, Haveri are lightweights, unlikely to make a mark

With certain defeat of JDS in Vijayapura, almost a walkover in Dharwad & a vulnerable sitting MP who is personally not keen on rigorous campaign in , Cong is staring at a washout in Mumbai K’taka

In Koppal, Con party has nominated another member of Hitnal family. Although Koppal victory of 2014 was close, things have evolved since then and BJP did well in ACs under Koppal AC.

BJP has not yet announced its candidate but at this stage, but Koppal is still Leans to BJP atm!

In South Canara, Cong has nominated youth Congress president Mithun Rai. Although might’ve been a good choice for the party under normal circumstances, candidate is immaterial here as defeat is certain!

Repeat B Central candt from 2014, Rizwan Arshad might be a blessing for BJP!

Overall, 2 good choices(Bidar, Davanagere) And many poor choices to repeat unpopular sitting MPs(even though they’re senior most Cong leaders) in an election where they are not riding on a way.

Follow this thread further for a ‘seat-rating’ starting tomorrow!

Congress has named B K Hariprasad who had made a controversial remark about Pulwama terror attack, as its candidate from Bangalore South

Although good in central congress leadership’s books, he is either unknown on the ground or has a negative image among those who know him!

Here’s how the 28 seats of Karnataka stack up as of today:

(This is based on conversations with grassroots workers of all 3 parties from each of the 28 constituencies, panchayati/municipality members, local journalists and local leaders)

Follow the thread

Mumbai Karnataka Region

2014 LS
BJP 5
Con 1

2019 forecast
BJP 6
Con 0

BJP is likely to sweep this region with many big margin victories. Only seat which could theow up a surprise is Chikodi, the same seat which Cong had won with a very thin margin in 2014

Hyderabad Karnataka Region

2014 LS
BJP 3
Con 2

(Cong had also won Bellary in the bypoll that was held in 2018 following Sriramulu’s switch to the assembly)

2019 forecast
BJP 1
Con 2
Toss-up 2

With full candidate list and another 2 weeks time, the will become clearer!

Central Karnataka Region

2014 LS
BJP 2
Con 1

2019 forecast
BJP 3
Con 0

BJP is likely to flip Chitradurga seat from Congress’ hold

Coastal Karnataka Region

2014 LS
BJP 3
Con 0

2019 forecast
BJP 3
Con+ 0

By far, the safest region for the BJP in the state for 2019!

Old Mysore Region

2014 LS
BJP 1
Con 4
JDS 2

2019 forecast
BJP 2
Con 2
JDS 2
Toss-up 1

(The leads in Congress seats are razor thin!)
BJP is likely to make inroads into Old Mysore Region, thanks to the mutually self destructive alliance between Congress and JDS!

Capital City Region

2014 LS
BJP 3
Con 1

2019 forecast
BJP 3
Con 1

Bangalore city might throw up same exact results as 2014. JDS is unlikely to win B North, Prakash Raj is unlikely to retain deposits in B Central!

Karnataka LS 2019 projections as things stand today

Total 28
BJP 18(+1)
Con 5(-4)
JDS 2(0)
Toss-up 3

BJP is likely to make gains in the state despite the alliance between Congress and JDS and the alliance government in the state

PS I will keep updating the table every week

I have been generous while assigning a close seat as Lean Congress or Lean JDS

All the 3 toss-up seats have very slight advantage towards BJP

If the alliance continues in the downward spiral that it is currently caught up in, the BJP might go north of 21 seats!