, 106 tweets, 52 min read Read on Twitter
Note on possible #IAF #airstrike today. There is NO SUCH THING as "terror camps". These aren't concentrated like schools or colleges. These are disaggregated and dispersed AT ALL TIMES. If targets were struck they would be military targets
.2n this IAF Embraer 145 AWACS was patrolling since the early hours. Watchers know this is an unusual pattern, although it did come close to the area of the alleged strike, it patrolled South as well. The plane has since returned to base. Source: @zone5aviation #IAF #airstrike
.3n for context..here is where balakot is
.4n yes a scan of flightradar shows a c17 and SEVERAL AN-32s on the way. This issue is the An-32s SWITCHED OFF transponders after take off. This is significant as they don't want to show up on open source tracking, something they usually don't mind
5n important to note, this is absolutely true. The ingress was NOT INTO what Pakistan describes as "Azad Kashmir", but INTO PAKISTAN PROPER, beyond POK in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
6n irrespective of the success of the strike, the fact that IAF jets were able to CROSS POK & PENETRATE DEEP INTO PAKISTAN PROPER (NWFP) is telling. Contrary to what I said earlier, this now gives the impression of METICULOUS enemh air defence mapping. PAF caught napping?
7n understand how HUGE this ingress was,
1) one of the most heavily guarded borders
2) already on high alert
3) just yesterday the Pakistani COAS & CAS toured the area #EggOnYourFace

That the planes went in so deep & returned UNHARMED is massive
8n one of the reasons this tweet is sheer misdirection or mischief: The sheer level of planning required to execute the strike would have gauged first if the target was WORTHWHILE.
9n I think Pakistan realises it is now in damage control mode. After realising it comitted a major faux pas admitting the IAF intruded deep into Pakistan, state assets are now being deployed to backpedal the story
10n watch this video
1) why was this Pakistani fighter flying so close to the ground and
2) issuing flares ?

ANSWER: to avoid air to air missiles. A clear indication that some AIR TO AIR ACTION DID TAKE PLACE and the IAF Mirages came out SAFELY
11n now look how the language of @OfficialDGISPR changes. First (bottom) "intruded FROM THE MUZAFFARABAD sector" with No MENTION no mention LOC then "In the MUZAFFARABAD sector". Curiously Omar Abdullah takes the same line within minutes of this official tweet. Why?
12n. Further confirmation this was Balakot in Pakistan proper. This Pakistani handle forced to delete tweet at 7.24am that indicated location as abbotabad, then reposted the same at 8.01 without his location. Sustained effort at downplaying strike means SOMETHING HUGE happened
13n this is important. Because the Balakot(e) being referred to now by @OfficialDGISPR and his paid 5th columns in India are FAR FROM ABOTTABAD. Yet the initial deleted videos in the previous tweet, geolocation is CLEARLY in abbotabad hence the Balakot closest to it.
14n and the end of all speculation that the strikes were in Pakistan proper. Amazing though that Barkha and Omar were tweeting deliberate misdirection within minutes of the Pakistani DG ISPR..all they needed was 15 to 20 minutes of Twitter research. "Journalist" apparently!
15n just a reminder... I had signalled from day 1 of that ghastly attack in #Pulwama that stand alone air operations were preferable and on the cards and why they were better than ground based operations. See the full thread below
16n and here an important story by @ShivAroor on the timeline of the attack, clearance for which was given 11 days back. FINALLY the Prime Minister(s) gave the go ahead for a standalone air operation, something many of us have been advocating for years. indiatoday.in/amp/india/stor…
17n @IAF_MCC had presented variants of today's strike to PMs in the past. Most considered it too escalatory, defying air force logic that the world would step in to restrain Pakistan quickly. @narendramodi bit the bullet, took the risk & did the needful
18n Hubris & Wrong. Till a high value target like ISI or Army HQ is targetted, the cycle will continue. This is "higher value", but let's not forget, those killed today were medium value jihadi scum, whom the Pakistan Army treats like condoms...
19n if you like @ShekharGupta think pakistans nuclear brinkmanship ended today, think again. They will up the ante... not immediately, but they will, because they play the "madman" to perfection. Their state legitimacy & defence posture, depend on them reestablishing deterrence
20n again I'd urge my fellow countryfolk STAY VIGILANT. This is fine for a quick laugh, but no letting down the guard. This is the moment of greatest danger, when retaliation will ensue. It will not be in the air, but it will target our women & children
21n note the language used by @VijayGokhaleIFS. It is extremely nuanced shows the strikes were not punitive or preventive (hence illegal under international law) but were preempting an imminent threat (legal & under the ambit of self defence & proportionality) ergo Jus In Bello
22n A wikileaks note dated 2004 wikileaks.org/gitmo/pdf/pk/u… referring to this exact camp & it's centrality to the JeM infrastructure, it was operating in broad daylight without fear. This sense of invulnerability may (InshaGanesha) account for high fatalities. Source: @prasants
23n interviews by BBC seem to indicate 5 building destroyed in just 1 location. So much for @OfficialDGISPR's line about "dropping payloads" clearly dropped on target.
24n So the F-16 video was a previous video from a flypast. If anything it means the Indian Jets left Pakistani territory even before Pakistani jets arrived. Ask yourself why the Pakistanis aren't 1) allowing TV cameras 2) parading JeM leadership on TV
25n the BBC interviews of locals in the previous tweet clearly show good weather. This seems much like the Syrian cover up of the bombing of the Al Kibar reactor. During the Atlantique shoot down OTOH Pakistan had no qualms flying journos in immediately
26n high level sources confirming 3 things 1) the use of the term "non military" by @VijayGokhaleIFS & choice of ForSec to announce strikes was deliberate. It marks JeM as "non state" hence any Pakistani response will be deemed STATE ACTION in support of a "non state" actor...
27n this means 2 things. The Pakistani response will be deemed Casus Belli & that Pakistan admits that JeM is "sub-state" as India claims and not "non-state" as Pakistan claims. This is a rhetorical action trap. 2) should the Pakistani state choose to respond, Indian targeting..
28n will include Chinese assets in the region, specifically @CPEC_Official projects, a clear message to @China_Amb_India, @CathayPak that their interests ate now in the firing line. Effectively, Chinese investments are being held hostage. 3) poignantly, the strikes were....
29n deliberately scheduled to coincide with the 13th day ceremony of the departed soldiers of the #PulwamaAttack. As such it has messages for our fallen, for Pakistan and for China. Clearly the planning that went in to this has been METICULOUS and every aspect has been looked at
30n ....and wait for it... @ShekharGupta argued that pakistans nuclear deterrence had ended. I differed & said in tweet 19 that "Pakistan will reestablish deterrence" so here comes the direct nuclear threat... MAKE NO MISTAKE - THIS IS A NUCLEAR THREAT
31n Pakistan's dilemma summed up by @samirsaran is this: ATTACK India and hand @narendramodi an election victory or DONT ATTACK India, establish Modi as LohPurush & hand him an election victory. Basically heads Modi wins, tails Modi wins. We thus have to interpret the fire & fury
32n from Islamabad as posturing...hoping the "international community" (IC) publicly requests "restraint" etc of Pakistan. The same worthless platitudes IC used to whisper to us when we were attacked. Pakistan will have no choice but to shut up and pass off necessity as virtue
33n Read this thread on the Israeli SPICE bomb used in today's strike to clear up a lot of the confusion and misinformation doing the rounds....and seriously read it CAREFULLY because the amount of dumbass "analysis" happening out there is phenomenal
35n my friends in Islamabad have been telling me that 1) press have been prevented from entering the area in question. 2) comms to area cutoff or impossible 3) Notice to date no one except ISPR has visuals of the exact spot. Also remember CNN & NYT & Kasab
36n meanwhile it seems the strikes are wildly popular in Afghanistan, but friends tell me they are largely ignored but popular amongst those who know in Teheran
37n meanwhile.... I'd be a wee bit more convinced if they showed us videos of these chappies and walked some folks around the madrassah complex that was missed by Indian bombs. Evidently mobile phone cameras and connections don't exist in Balakot
38n and here's some open source confirmation of the fact that Pakistan has shut down internet services in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. reports emerging from my sources of a total power outage as well
39n manufactured anger is an Army trademark. Post Osama for the first two days while the "Pakistan cooperated" bogey was floated everyone was happy, then the army decided otherwise & crowds of jobless types appeared on the streets. Old tactic to extract...
40n ...."concessions" from the west...usually peanuts. Miraculously, the crowds always return to home base and seem remarkably well informed about international politics for a bunch of jobless semi literate who can afford to waste time on the streets
41n Cabinet Comittee on security meeting shortly. Strike on Brigade HQ confirmed. Pakistan has walked into the trap, it now WAR. My colleague below confirmed bombs dropped.
42n Indian plane shot down ACROSS THE LINE OF CONTROL and pilot captured. Things escalating rapidly as anticipated. Make no mistake terrorism is WAR & that is what Modi has established
43n War book put out. 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗽𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗳 11𝗮𝗺. The heavy police movement into & within Delhi since last night now makes sense
44n If the Su-30MKI shoot down of an F16 falcon pans out, it is historic. If I'm not mistaken it will be the 𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗦𝗧 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗢𝗧𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡 𝗢𝗙 𝗔 𝗪𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗡 𝗙𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧𝗘𝗥 𝗕𝗬 𝗔𝗡 𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗡 𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗖𝗘 𝗘𝗡𝗗 𝗢𝗙 𝗖𝗢𝗟𝗗 𝗪𝗔𝗥. The Mig21 shootdown story is FAKE news
45n yes unfortunately this is true. Wing Cdr Abhinandan has been captured. Trying to verify. The flight uniform seems Russian. Therefore possibly the MiG21
46n @OfficialDGISPR is this how you treat prisoners of war parading them like circus animals? Does the Geneva Convention mean nothing to you? This is a disgrace
47n just preserving this screenshot for posterity, now that the MEA has confirmed the MiG21 downing. Data science specialist even though cross verification was available through several sources and he doesn't even know about time zones
48n @OfficialDGISPR I hope you realise YOUR CITIZENS beat up and broke Wing Commander Abhinandans nose. I hope you will be filing criminal cases against these people
49n The capture of Wing Commander Abhinandan is traumatizing. We need to stay strong, he is brave and has taken it like a true son of mother India. his capture is public so rest assured that ABSOLUTELY NOTHING can be done to him. He is SAFE & that is the ONLY thing that matters
50n So no strikes last night. What is the plan? Is it economic strangulation through the threat of air Strikes? The fear of which will keep Pakistan's air lanes of communication down with disproportionate effects downstream? Could work
51n Given that the onus of escalation now lies with India, this 👇🏾 combined with the steady and massive movements we've observed on FlightRadar last night, we're building up to something. Question is what
52n I doubt now that this is the debris of a PAF F16. The engine sheathing is being compared to a GE F101 but Pakistani planes use the Pratt & Whitney PW F100. f-16.net/f-16-news-arti… you can see the weave pattern of the middle section of the PW is diamond shaped not square
53n you can see the full set of images from the crash here. It's the Indian MiG21 and the engine cowling of a MiG21 southfront.org/first-photos-s…
54n for reference, here're the ribs that hold the MiG-21's engine in place. Notice the chicklet pattern near the exhaust petals (closest to the left edge of the pic). For comparison, here's what the F-16 interior looks like on the right.
55n Today the Pakistanis ran rings around us in the PR sphere. We were slow lethargic and putting out bad info. Now this. But let's remember after a clear Geneva convention violation they had little manoeuvre
room in Wng Cdr Abhinandan's case
56n super story of Wing Commander Abhinandan's F-16 shoot down and his subsequent shoot down by another F-16 by @VishnuNDTV and how this went down
57n after @OfficialDGISPR claimed tgat no American F-16s were used. We now have clear proof that American planes and weapons were used. This should also put an end to nonsense about Americans being able to geolock missiles.
58n unfortunately after this 👇🏾 and the trending of #BringBackAbhinandan yesterday, our useful idiots have played Pakistani 5th columns to perfection, equating return to cessation of hostilities. Understand an act of aggression was comitted .....
59n ...against India, returning WngCdr Abhinandan does not erase the aggression. We avoided civ+gov targets, only bombed terrorists. They targetted Indian STATE assets. Post AMRAAM debris recovery, this is a verifiable act of war. Abhinandan's release changes NOTHING
60n like is said, useful idiot or 5th column you decide, but this #BringBackAbhinandan was a carefully crafted psyops, intended to whitewash Pakistani aggression & create false equivalence between peace & Abhinandan. It is NOT.
Peace is for Ending TERROR
61n confirmed F-16 kill? So the son of an air marshal shot down the son of another air marshal?
62n Good Morning! I'd really suggest people stop making fools of themselves with amateur verification attempts such as Pic 1. Your entire analysis rests on a BLURRY 780269 scribbled by hand on a machine part. Now look at the exposed engine on the left of that part. It's a ?....
63n ...Tumansky R-25 used to power the MiG21.
1) polka dot+ weld sequence on the standalone engine. Polka dot-space-big weld-polka dot-thin weld-polka dot-space-polka dot. Exact same pattern on the exposed engine at the crash site
2) the exposed engine is NOT the exhaust....
64n ..the way the R-25 is assembled is in 3 parts. From right to left, the blades, the expansion chamber and the after burner assembly. The exposed part in the wreckage is the middle bit as you can see from the Polka dot-weld sequence.
3) further we can see two distinct markings
65n on the fairings sticking out of the wreckage (left horizontal stabiliser HS) attached to the engine middle section. Flat circle +long protrusion both secured with screws. Compare this with the Romanian MiG21. Same flat circle-long protrusion on the HS. right HS found detached
4) look at the wave pattern of the inner bit of the engine with the regular perforations. Now compare it to this image of the R-25, with the afterburner section attached (to show you how it fits) same wave same perforations.

So please stop making fools of yourselves. Thanks
67n Pakistani eyewitness description claims 3 pilots came down. This conforms with 2 ejections seen in the video doing the rounds. It also EXCLUDES the possibility it was the SINGLE seat IAF MiG21 or the SINGLE seat ex Jordanian PAF F-16 serial 269
68n But this video CONFIRMS ONE PAKISTANI PLANE SHOT DOWN, a two seater. Cuz we lost, a MiG21which was single seat & all our Sukhois and Mirages (including twin seaters) are safe. Wrt tweet 67, I'd caveat CAUTION wrt single source eyewitness testimony
69n and if you believe that the AIM-120C5 AMRAAM is fake, then I seriously suggest you check out @svaradarajan's explanation here of the obvious forgery. The missile was INCONTROVERTIBLY sold to Pakistan
70n The pilot pun was tasteless, but, this suggests Aerial Deep Strike is the NEW NORMAL, AND THAT IT IS SCALEABLE no more business as usual. This significantly means NO DEESCALATION!
71n the most succinct summation of the Indian position so far
72n it seems a Pakistani minister admitted on the floor of the house that India not only caused damage but also that the madrassah was Masood Azhars.
73n Folks, #WelcomeHomeAbhinandan this rockstar & fellow Tamizhan! If true then this badass is the FIRST & ONLY person piloting a Russian aircraft to have EVER shot down an F-16. In Afghanistan, even the Soviets didn't manage an Air to Air kill of an F-16
74n Curious no Indian official made this point when it shouldve been part of their diplomatic training, or at very least 3 clicks away in Google. They preferred instead to posture on "Pakistan had no option" rather than solid technical legal detail
75n Report in today's IE, yet again based on he said, she said. If the imagery exists it should be released as the public source analysis done by @Michael1Sheldon gives a very different impression. Imagery must be countered by imagery, not words
76n MPs worried about the impact of the strikes have asked for visual evidence to be made public. This is ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY given the satimagery evidence suggesting the strikes failed. At the very least give us GPS coordinates so we can verify
77n This imagery being circulated on Twitter as proof of damage, actually proves THE OPPOSITE. Bombs don't take out roofs..they flatten buildings. There is 1) no charring & 2) ABSOLUTELY NO SIGN of ANY physical damage to the building save A SYSTEMATIC MANUAL removal of roofs
78n and for reference you can see the SPICE publicity video including a short montage of a live test. here's the Image of the Syrian Dier-ez-Zor reactor also struck by a SPICE munition. Roof blown off but SIGNIFICANT & VISIBLE infrastructural damage
79n again this other set of images is equally unconvincing. Pakistan could remove evidence of the building in 24 hours, yes. But the foliage in the trees has remained UNAFFECTED. The shockwaves of the bomb should have defoliated the proximate trees.
80n Primary source confirmation of a SIGNIFICANT culling of JeM jihadis by @francescam63 . FYI Francesca scouted there extensively & spent time in a Pakistani prison. Her sources are IMPECCABLE, & my pakistani sources (albeit secondary) confirmed the same firstpost.com/india/eyewitne…
81n backed up in a speech by Masood Azhars younger brother. Logically speaking (given their location in Pakistan proper & sense of impunity) the casualties should have been high. This audio & @francescam63's report seem to confirm this
82n This BBC report similarly confirms the lock down & exclusion of the targetted areas in Balakot and requisitioning of hospital beds nearby. Evacuation & Santisation of area circumstantially confirm the high casualties I believe resulted from the strikes
83n Just clarifying tweet 81! @Natsecjeff Is correct & i shoukd hace clarified. The speaker mentions a strike, that's all. No mention of casualties or accuracy etc etc. I'd highly reccomend you read his thread here on that particular audio.
84n Purported Su30 kill by F16 video is FAKE NEWS

1) Plane 1 unlike plane 2 heavily pixellated suggesting digital manipulation
2) what little we see of planform of plane 1 looks nothing like an Su30
3) Chased planes manoeuvre like crazy, don't fly straight line & dispense chaff
4) The size difference between a Su30 (right extreme) & F-16 (left extreme) is MASSIVE. Given boyh flying at same altitude plane 1 seems the exact same size, just somehow "bulked up" possibly by external fuel tanks. Bottom line: size differential is too great to be Su30
5) P2 makes all the noise, whereas P1 which is already being tailed by P2 should be accelerating like crazy with similar noise levels

6) given P2 has clearly lined up a firing solution for the ENTIRE 7 secs of video, amazing plane 2 doesnt shoot indicating terrible training
87n Thanks to @shayon4uall we have the original video which is 2 JF17s flying . This clearly shows @ZaidZamanHamid put up a manipulated video pixellating the 1st JF17 which also tampered with sound. Plane 1 screenshot below
88n Deeply disappointed by the armed forces briefing to IE on several scores. It gives the modus operandi of a bunker buster (primary explosion to enter & secondary explosion to destroy). This means small entry hole followed by big mound underearth.
1) why would you use a bunker
89n ...buster to target facilities over ground?

2) accepting that it is NOT the explosion but the shockwaves that target the individuals within and tore the roofing clean, these same shockwaves should have defoliated the greenery. No sign

3) had it been an incendiary....
90n ..blast then significant signs of charring should have been seen both on building and on the trees.

4) while one does accept the use of such warheads for penetrating hardened targets like the Kibar reactor in Syria, the damage one sees at Kibar is VASTLY different from
91n ...alleged damage in satellite pics shown. Of the site.

5) Im equally confused that given the relative isolation of the site, why were munitions chosen that inflicted little to no damage on the physical infrastructure? Israel uses a different weapon (spice 250 and hellfire)
92n ...to limit casualties in the densely populated west bank and gaza & as the Al Kibar photo shows, the Spice 2000 causes SIGNIFICANT structural damage.

6) finally the madrassah was on a western slope of a high ridge, one of a number of ridges. Which grow higher eastwards.
93n without significant ingress into Pakistani territory, an UNPOWERED SPICE munition with steadily decaying altitude should not have been able to take such a sharp turn, accurately, at the very end of its flight envelope.

To sum up, if the planes didn't ingress chances of hit
94n were low. If the SPICE 2000 were used, the damage is highly inconsistent with their use. Im convinced from my own sources and @francescam63's (both cold since a few days) that there was at least one successful hit, but garbage unofficial briefings are ERODING CREDIBILITY
95n Fort Abbas (punjab) bombed. looks like dumb bomb/mortar casings. Considering this is 20kms in from the international border it is OUT OF MORTAR range... ergo must be air dropped bombs. IMPORTANT because this is NOT KASHMIR OR LOC but Pakistan PROPER. Pics+info via @Natsecjeff
96n Curious air pattern emerging in Pakistan. FlightRadar indicates air traffic being DIVERTED away from Indian border, following a western arc, especially on the North-South axis. Possible confirmation of air activity
97n info via @shtoon PIA flight 756 from Riyadh to Sialkot, diverted to Islamabad. May be Pakistanis can tell me if this is a normal follow on route or rerouting? Flight software doesnot indicate onward flight. Map given for context.
98n Re tweet 95, here a passing motorbike gives you an approximation of size. The casings are HUGE. Obviously air dropped bombs, but why in the middle of the barren cholistan desert ????
99n Reports coming in of another round of air to air engagements in Rajasthan ... confirmation awaited. Details sketchy
100n WTF? Sequentially:
@Geeta_Mohan reports ACM Dhanoa says more planned
@sneheshphilip sources deny fort Abbas
@dperi84 sources say dropping of fuel tanks at Toba (doesnt look EFT)
@ShivAroor sources air to air action
@Iyervval sources "significant air to air action ongoing"
101n Remains of a Denel Raptor found, if in POK it clearly missed it's target or jettisoned
102n The all important question, nobody has articulated this yet. indeed why hasn't Pakistan named the pilot who shot Wing Commander Abhinandan yet. This isn't adding up
103n correction. It turns out the ace is @Hassan_PakArmy. Congrats! Glad to have you on twitter. Pakistani twitterati..Any info on what he flies?
104n For those claiming the #BalakotAirStrikes blast has to be extensive, see images below of Israeli strike in Syria. Munition entered sideways & damage CANNOT be detected by satellite imagery, the roof remains intact #BalakotProof source @haaretzcom haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…
105n #MustRead by @francescam63 on the correct location of the #BalakotAirStrike + press taken to a dummy site + how @ReutersPakistan was denied access to the correct site not 1ce but 3 times. Maybe @ReutersIndia should've spoken to their colleagues first?
106n and here @VishnuNDTV collates all the factual & circumstantial evidence in favour of the #BalakotAirStrike being effective
107n IMPORTANT point by @YusufDFI that west claims India has moved towards nuclear counterforce targeting. This requires SIGNIFICANT intelligence+surveillance+reconnaissance(ISR) capabilities. Yet they doubt India can hit a STATIONARY target
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