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What if Theresa May has genuinely decided that no-deal is the second best option? Many assume Theresa May is running a “madman” strategy to scare MPs into voting for her deal. (although strategy is a big word to attach to the PM’s approach) - a Thread 1/n
But what if they are wrong and Mrs May no longer sees no-deal as the worst outcome. If, as some Tories now believe, the PM has reached that view - either from personal conviction or under pressure from chief whip and cabinet and for reasons of party unity? 2/n
If her deal is voted down could and Mrs May sees no-deal as the next best option it could be very hard to stop her taking the UK out March 29. 3/n
The nightmare scenario for the 400 MPs opposed to no deal is an emergency summit next Thursday, the day before Brexit. Her deal has been heavily defeated but the EU, with reluctance, offers an extension. If it is simply a few weeks to prepare for no-deal, the PM agrees. 4/n
But if the extension comes with conditions she dislikes or is a lengthy delay of the kind she has so definitively ruled out, May can effectively block it. If she refuses to accept the delay there is probably little parliament can do in the time available to rectify matters 5/n
There is one possible insurance measure. If the Letwin/Cooper plan to take control of the Commons timetable succeed in doing so, they could use the time to delete the scheduled Brexit date before the summit, stopping the clock until a new date is agreed. 6/n
But bottom line, if May has flipped - and it is an if - and her deal loses as it looks like it will, then no-deal could be very hard to avoid. 7/7
Addendum: a no-confidence vote won't change things. a) Brexit date has to be changed in law - no time if govt opposed. 2) Defeated govt has 2 weeks to secure a new majority, so clock still runs down, and no Tory cand who wants to win likely to support delay 8/7
And all of this, of course is predicated on the EU being prepared to offer an extension in those circumstances - which looks a long way from a given 9/7
