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Timothy Garton Ash
@fromTGA
, 6 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
#euco #article50 extension decision was tough but rational. UK now has <3 weeks (until April 12, emergency summit pencilled in for April 10) finally to make up its mind. Parliament must now take control. Options, in diminishing order of *desirability* imho...thread follows./1
1. vote for Kyle-Wilson amendment, accepting her deal subject to 2nd 'confirmatory'referendum, then ask EU for longer extension, agreeing to hold European elections in UK...
2. revoke article 50 and start all over again.../2
3. Cross-party indicative vote majority for Norway Plus finally accepted by government (w/wout PM May), EU agrees to change Political Declaration, unchanged WA & Brexit by May 22
4. ditto, but only for plain vanilla customs union.../3
5. general election (but what on earth would that solve?)
6. DUP and enough ERG + Labour Brexiters come in behind May's deal, with largely unchanged Political Declaration, & Brexit by May 22.../4
7. No Deal Brexit
8. Götterdämmerung.../5
& in order of *probability*? God alone knows, but my best guess (from most to least likely): 4, 3, 1, 6, 5, 7, 2, 8.
Thoughts anybody..?
@CER_Grant @pmdfoster @simonjhix @anandMenon1 @HenryNewman @GoodwinMJ @Hugodixon @n_roettgen @FabianZuleeg @BBCkatyaadler @bbcnickrobinson
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Let's consider where #EUCO is at right now on extension:

1/
Yes, there are some (FR especially) then aren't keen on giving more time at all

But several (IE, NL, DE, etc.) that are very much focused on avoiding a no-deal, so extension is an essential first step (given where UK is right now)

2/
Hard to see that French ambivalence outweighs pressing interest of others, so likely to be a push to offer extension of some kind.

Thus Q has to be what kind of extension

3/
Read 10 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Emerging consensus seems to be if MV3 passes, ST extension; if it fails, LT extension and indicative votes—which EU would prefer. But what happens if MV fails by 10-20 MPs? No10 hasn’t given up on MV4. May would use #EUCO for one last push /1
We’ve never bought the “leaders will deliver” narrative, and still don’t. But important to note that signals & data points from Bxl, as well as EU capitals, about how EU leaders would respond in this situation are mixed—notwithstanding official statements /2
We would also not rule out May winning MV4 if EU leaders go for long delay. On basis of last night’s votes, Commons might not approve 21-24 month delay. So that's another route to MV4 and May's deal /ENDS
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Lexicalise 🌹
@lexicalise
Very sad to hear about the #suicide of #KeithFlint (#TheProdigy ). If you're in the UK - you can find a list of #MentalHealth resources and support in this thread.

So first up - 1. #Mind - Mind Infoline – Phone: 0300 123 3393, Text: 86463 mind.org.uk
2. Elefriends - a peer to peer community forum elefriends.org.uk

3. Samaritans (you do not need to be suicidal to call them) 116 123 (UK)
116 123 (ROI) jo@samaritans.org (UK) jo@samaritans.ie (ROI)
4. Rethink Mental Illness - broad array of services + part tackling mental health #stigma --- rethink.org along with 5. #TimeToChange time-to-change.org.uk and 6. SANE sane.org.uk which also has a helpline 0300 304 7000 from 4.30pm – 10.30pm daily
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
I'm awake far too early, so let's try and make sense of yesterday before today's dose of Brexit Silly Buggers kicks off, shall we?

1/
Before we get to the main event, let's no forget that the Wightman ruling that dropped first thing yesterday is also important

2/
The ECJ took on the AG's line (as they are prone to do), but with some important changes

3/
Read 19 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets

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