Thread by @Usherwood

I'm awake far too early, so let's try and make sense of yesterday before today's dose of Brexit Silly Buggers kicks off, shall we?

1/

Before we get to the main event, let's no forget that the Wightman ruling that dropped first thing yesterday is also important

2/

The ECJ took on the AG's line (as they are prone to do), but with some important changes

3/

Most striking was the removal of reference to good faith requirements in unilateral revocation, which strikes me as the court doing everything it can to keep the door open for the UK, should it change its mind

4/

That's not a plot but a reflection of the uncertainty glowing over British politics: one senses the judges didn't want to find themselves the reason why a last-minute turnaround couldn't happen

5/

Of course, that assumes the UK is able to make a decision on anything at all right now, which looks optimistic

6/

May's last minute prevarication doesn't look like a measured plan but just a bit of pain-avoidance

7/

In particular, the weakness of her statement to the House, and the unwillingness to even put the amendment of business to a vote reflect what looks dangerously close to a bunker mentality

8/

Without an active plan that has even a degree of buy-in from critics, it's hard to see how May puts herself in a stronger position from all this

9/

There's scarcely a pretence that taking to the EU is going to produce anything more than some 'helpful words ' in a #EUCO statement

And such words aren't going to win over any more than the most weak-willed CON rebels

10/

The more pressing Q is whether anyone in CON feels this is all too much and they press on with a leadership challenge

11/

Experience to date suggests not: no one wants to own the problem, so May will dangle on

It's also why LAB won't bring their no confidence motion

12/

So basically we're shaping up for a Christmas in limbo, unless something radical changes in the next week

May wants to run down the clock to make her TINA gambit fly

Everyone else wants to let her suffer some more, in the vain hope she'll change

13/

And all the time the clock ticks on to the no-deal that everyone professes to abhor

14/

I'd offer constructive advice the, but I'm not sure I have any

As someone noted yesterday, the UK really does need to start knocking some options off the list, otherwise it'll never get anywhere

But how to do that?

15/

The basic issue remains that too many individuals in this are thinking with their party political hats on, rather than their policy hats

Understandable, but also hardly problematic

16/

Doubtless someone has a bright idea that they'll float today, which will turn out to be more cakeism/"if I were in charge"-ism

17/

Unless and until Number 10 move, I don't see things changing very fast on this

So don't hold your breath

18/

In sum, I'm tired (on a number of levels) and I fear this can only get worse before it is any chance of getting better

#BreakfastBeckons

/end