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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Everyone has their own Brexit probability trackers these days, sometimes backed up by phenomenally complex flow charts (yes, you, @jonworth). Take your pick, but here's my weekly update...
So it's still the PM's deal in the lead, notwithstanding all the faults, for it is there on the table. As is (sort of, by default) no-deal. Customs Union continues to be the likeliest alternative, not least as the PM's deal is close to that anyway. Not leaving is still unlikely
But frankly we're not much the wiser than we were when I started the tracker 9 months ago, which is where most of the frustration comes in. Always a chance we'll know more next week...
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I've been posting this Brexit options table for a few days now, but without any narrative. As we almost certainly approach indicative votes of some sort or other, what are the key messages MPs should know? 1/
Most obvious, as you move away from membership and associated 'costs' such as payments and freedom of movement, you lose certain access rights like decision making, selling services, frictionless trade, but gain access to your own trade deals. You can't have everything 2/
We also learn that any future relationship is not cut and dried. Most notably no off the shelf model can solve the Irish border problem, and the extent of access to / say in EU goods and services markets after Brexit would need to be negotiated 3/
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There's been lots of talk including from the PM of showing how the next phase of Brexit talks could be conducted differently if her deal passes, to help it do so. Yet no real proposals. How difficult would that have been?
We are left to conclude the PM has no intention of doing anything differently, in which case the suggestion otherwise is actually counter-productive. She thinks her way was perfect, or perhaps doesn't want to admit the deal doesn't provide the certainty she claimed it did?
So we now see the PM practically begging MPs to pass her deal, but only for the certainty of kicking the can into the next phase, having left the EU. Not helped by those saying her deal might be ok without her, which also makes little actual sense.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
My most minority Brexit view. When the EU say the Withdrawal Agreement can't be changed this is shorthand for not changing the Irish backstop without the UK changing red lines. It is not to be taken literally of the entire text.
Of course since the UK subsequently burned all negotiating capital in trying to change the Irish backstop without changing red lines, it is probably literally the case for the moment that the WA will not change. But that is not the same as saying it couldn't happen.
My more familiar lament is that since hardly anyone has read the whole Withdrawal Agreement, still less analysed what it means, we are several months after it was unveiled not particularly the wiser. Which is typical of our lax approach thus far to negotiations.
Read 3 tweets

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Kai Pflughaupt
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Liam Fox is trending - which is never going to be for the right reasons, but the outpouring of cynicism and negativity is not especially useful either. It follows a blistering and inaccurate assault on @tradegovuk by the CBI which is based on gossip and rumour.
#Brexit
2. The source of the scorn comes from this particular article, which is more speculation than actual fact. CBI is right to be concerned - and the lack of information isn't helping but @tradegovuk has its hands tied for the moment.

3. A lot of trade policy will depend on what the EU relationship looks like and until firm decisions are made, all we can really do is prepare for the various eventualities. The problem is not with Fox's department, or Fox especially, rather it is a lack of political leadership.
Read 25 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Megathread - Yes, the #Brexit vote is illegitimate, and it's not elitist to say so

Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
2) So why was the #Brexit vote illegitimate? Well, broadly speaking:
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
3) Leave simply would not win if the costs of the #Brexit they promised were revealed honestly in a second referendum. The only way they could win is if these costs were obscured again

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 13 tweets
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Alex Andreou
@sturdyAlex
Okay, then peeps. LONG THREAD. Put down your union flag for a moment and just take some information in. I will try to explain the approaching #Brexit nightmare using a single, calm, factual example, so far largely ignored. I urge you to think, share and talk about this. Ready?
The UK has no structures or agency of its own for approving and licensing medicines. It relies almost exclusively on the European Medicines Agency. The MHRA is an ancillary organisation. In precisely 15 months UK access to the EMA ends; abruptly if the "no deal" voices prevail.
Where are the UK's preparations for replacing this vital framework? The answer is: Non-existent. Not even embryonic. Just a statement by Hunt this summer that the UK "will look to continue to work closely” with the EMA, but we're ready "to establish our own system if necessary".
Read 15 tweets

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