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Having spent part of this week in Brussels, a few thoughts on how the EU institutions and member-states see Brexit. They think the chances of no deal are high, because they don't trust the UK political class not to screw up. @CER_EU /1
Officials are sceptical that indicative votes in Westminster will resolve the crisis. They worry that even if Parliament does produce a clear plan, the executive may simply ignore it. They fret that few in the UK understand how important the European elections are to the EU. /2
Many key EU figures would rather the UK left without a deal than be permitted to extend Art 50 without taking part in European elections. They worry that in a crisis/general election situation the UK will be unable to legislate for EP elections, leading to a no deal exit. /3
There is a real fear that May will be replaced by a Leaver of the Boris Johnson variety, who could provoke a no deal situation by testing the EU's patience, or mess up the negotiation of the future relationship. /4
There are some tensions between France and German over Brexit. Seen from Berlin, Germany is more strategic, hoping for a close & friendly long-term relationship with the UK; France, more short-termist, and obsessed with reducing risks in the EP elections, is harder on the UK. /5
Behind the scenes there is some tension between the Commission and Dublin over what hap;pens to the intra-Irish border in the event of no deal. But both agree that the EU's price for discussing mitigating measure in a no deal situation should be some sort of Irish backstop. /6
If Britain requests a permanent customs union with the EU, the EU will be happy to redraft the political declaration in just a few days. It would be willing to give the UK a consultation mechanism but such details could be left for the negotiation of the future relationship. /7
