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Just back from Warsaw with a few thoughts on how the Polish govt views Brexit. Poland regrets Brexit as much as any country, except perhaps Ireland, as it loses a potential ally in blocking federalism, supporting the US, being tough on Russia, etc. /1 @CER_EU
It hopes the EU will show flexibility, to enable the UK Parliament to pass the withdrawal agreement. But it is NOT asking the EU to change its substantive position on the withdrawal agreement. /2
POL is happy to extend Art50 if the UK wants that, though it would prefer a shorter extension. It can live with an extension beyond June, and the Poles don't think the EP elections need be a problem: 'Brussels exaggerates the complication of the UK needing to choose MEPs'. /3
The prospect of 'no deal' alarms Poles, especially for its impact on trade and EU budget. They think citizens'll be OK. In talks on future rels, POL reckons that as long as no deal & acrimony can be avoided, there is a good chance of a closer rel than the pol decln implies. /4
This is especially true for security policy. Like many member-states (eg Nordics, Balts), POL hopes that post-Brexit, EU can find ways of plugging UK closely into its structures for security co-op, foreign pol & defence. /5
So POL likes the new Macron idea of an inter-governmental European Security Council, including UK. It dislikes other Macron ideas like his implicit threat to exclude Central Europeans from Schengen unless they take quotas of refugees; & his emphasis on climate & min wage. /6
As for the EP elections, some in Warsaw expect PiS's ECR group to invite in Fidesz when EPP kicks them out. Perhaps Salvini's League too, though its pro-Putin view wd be difficult. Not Le Pen. As a hard-right group ECR would stymie EPP/S&D attempts to run the EP. @CER_EU /7 ENDS
