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Robert Peston
@Peston
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
.@theresa_may has asked EU leaders for a further delay to Brexit to 30 June. As @PhilipHammondUK said to me, the EU is very likely to insist on a much longer extension (if any) - unless the PM and @jeremycorbyn can demonstrate by Wednesday's EU council meeting that...
they have agreed a way forward not only to approve the Withdrawal Agreement by then but also ensure the passage of the crucial accompanying legislation, the Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill. Proving to the EU that the UK would not need yet another extension...
to avoid a no-deal Brexit currently looks a huge stretch. And the point is that EU leaders do not want the UK to be constantly bothering them with further requests for Brexit delays. So the PM could be forced to accept either a Brexit delay of a year or so, or...
indeed (still not impossible) a no-deal Brexit on 12 April.
PS The PM has confirmed the UK will now start proper and expensive preparations for participating in elections to the EU parliament, even though the UK voted to leave the EU, and even though May is hoping the EU will allow her to cancel the actual casting of votes by UK...
citizens the day before the poll is due to happen on 23 May, if parliament actually agrees and implements her Brexit deal by 22 May. Many would say this makes a mockery of an important EU democratic process.
PPS By requesting a delay to "just" 30 June, @theresa_may is trolling those who want a confirmatory referendum, or people's vote, because that delay is nowhere near long enough to accommodate a referendum. She is also trying to embarrass @jeremycorbyn into agreeing a...
Brexit compromise before Wednesday, because if he doesn't she will be able to accuse him of blocking a short Brexit delay to "just" 30 June and wanting to trap the UK in the EU for much longer. This is raw brutal politics
By the way, sources close to the PM were saying yesterday that the Tusk letter didn't need to be sent till next week - which is why many will say that sending it today, before Corbyn talks have reached any kind of conclusion, is aimed more at pressurising him into an entente...
(and at placating Brexiters in May's cabinet) than at EU leaders (who already rejected 30 June as a leaving date just a few weeks ago).
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Sources close to the Labour leader believe that tomorrow the emergency NEC meeting, which determines the Labour manifesto for the EU elections, will agree a formula that is "a restatement" of the party's equivocal and prolix party conference resolution of last September. BUT...
a senior trade union source tells me that if Unison, GMB and Usdaw are bulldozed tomorrow, if their demand for Labour to commit to a "confirmatory" referendum on any Brexit deal is simply ignored, Corbyn and his colleagues are "being delusional about the likely consequences"...
The well-placed trade unionist added: "they have no idea what's going to hit them and the scale of the backlash they will face". Which captures for you how emotions are running very high. And given that Unison, the GMB and Usdaw are respectively the first, third and fourth...
Read 9 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
So I now hear @DavePrentis and the giant Unison union are in fact closer to @tom_watson than @jeremycorbyn on how Labour’s approach to a referendum should be characterised in its EU election manifesto.
In other words, at the emergency NEC meeting on Tuesday, Unison will back a form of words that makes it clear that a confirmatory referendum would be necessary in almost any practical circumstances of a Brexit deal being approved by MPs.
In fact Prentis fears Corbyn misunderstood his position when he expressed it at that meeting with him last Tuesday. So just maybe Corbyn has not yet stitched up a victory for the more equivocal position on a referendum he prefers.
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Unite seems so confident of its influence over @jeremycorbyn and the leader’s office that it did not bother to turn up today to the meeting of the Trade Union and Labour Party Liaison Organisation that was held to discuss what should be in the party’s EU elections manifesto...
Those there said that as expected, Unison, the GMB and Usdaw all said they want a confirmatory Brexit referendum as the foundation of the manifesto. They expect the words to be in the manifesto. But they remain nervous that the emergency NEC meeting on Tuesday that will...
decide the manifesto may not go for on an unambiguous referendum pledge. It will all come down, I am told, to whether the NEC representatives of party members vote the way that most Labour and Momentum members want them to vote, namely for a referendum, or whether they side...
Read 4 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU emergency #brexit summit 10 April will start 6pm in Brussels. The PM will be invited to ‘engage’ with the 27 EU leaders +inform them of her plans/requests. She’ll then like last time be asked to leave the room while the 27 try to come to unified position required by EU law /1
Leaders are divided. No one likes idea of long #brexit delay - if PM asks for it - and it only takes one country (France in frontline) to say no - as EU decision must be unanimous BUT /2
If the UK does as EU had requested and agrees to holding European parliamentary elections as a condition for being granted a longer #Brexit delay then it’s hard to imagine EU saying no. Even if the PM only presents a vague plan of what intends to do during longer extension /3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Little expectation in EU today that the Withdrawal Agreement will pass. Of it does, EU leaders would be mightily relieved. UK would then have till 22 May to sort out political declaration .. which can still be negotiated. Not legally binding /1
EU mood is one of resignation now. For first time this week a no deal #Brexit is being viewed and discussed as a v real possibility. Rather than a distant, unlikely prospect /2
At yesterday’s meeting of ambassadors of the 27 EU countries, I’m told diplomats tackled ‘hot potato’ EU issues head-on that they preferred to avoid before as long as no deal seemed so unlikely /3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU countries’ position on #Brexit delay being described to me still as a “cacophony” - some for short, others for long, some for strict conditions, others more relaxed BUT /1
EU decision on extension depends a) on what PM asks for b) on EU leaders once in a room together Thurs. Fair to say: all options stil on table and EU leaders want to avoid no deal. There will be no EU “no” to an extension request /2
There are legal and political issues mixed up in EU’s extension decision: /3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Agata Gostyńska
@AgataGostynska
.@SadiqKhan has told @MichelBarnier that EU should start preparations for extending art 50 talks just in case Westm votes down #Brexit deal &instructs GOV to hold a referendum: theguardian.com/politics/2018/…; here's is #thread why LONGER extension than 4-6 weeks isn't straightforward
1. Academic research by @ConUnit_UCL suggests that one needs around 6 M to hold referendum; the preparations to hold a vote include eg. pushing through legislation, assessing intelligibility of the Q on the ballot, preparing polling stations and securing the time for the campaign
2. The first possibility to instruct GOV to hold a vote would be when MPs vote on withdrawal agreement. Looking at the pace of the talks the deal (if it is reached at all) could be presented to Parliament the earliest in DEC; this means that the REF could be held around June/July
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