.@SadiqKhan has told @MichelBarnier that EU should start preparations for extending art 50 talks just in case Westm votes down #Brexit deal &instructs GOV to hold a referendum: theguardian.com/politics/2018/…; here's is #thread why LONGER extension than 4-6 weeks isn't straightforward
1. Academic research by @ConUnit_UCL suggests that one needs around 6 M to hold referendum; the preparations to hold a vote include eg. pushing through legislation, assessing intelligibility of the Q on the ballot, preparing polling stations and securing the time for the campaign
2. The first possibility to instruct GOV to hold a vote would be when MPs vote on withdrawal agreement. Looking at the pace of the talks the deal (if it is reached at all) could be presented to Parliament the earliest in DEC; this means that the REF could be held around June/July
3. Whereas I can imagine that many EU capitals would be sympathetic to a short extension they will also want the 'British problem' sorted by the time of the European Parliament's elections planned for 23-26 MAY;
4. If the UK was given extra time it would probably have to hold elections to the EP as one cannot deny this right to Brits as long as they are EU's citizens; one could perhaps get round this problem by sending UK MPs to serve as MEPs until the UK vote is implemented.
5. But you can perhaps imagine that the EP will not be particularly sympathetic to the idea: where is the point in constructing EP groups with UK MEPs and giving them certain responsibilities if there is no guarantee that the British would vote REMAIN in the next ref?
6. But this - in my view- isn't the biggest concern of EU leaders - after all when there is a will there is a way they say; EU leaders will worry that any effort to help re-run 2016 referendum could play into the hands of the eurosceptics;
7. Populists would certainly interpret such an effort as trying to block 'democratic will of the people' Now, don't get me wrong- I think there are legitimate reasons behind calling for a second vote- I am just presenting the EU context that some Remainers seem to forget about.
8. Remember Salzburg? On the margins of the summit, the Maltese and Czech PMs suggested that most EU leaders would welcome another REF But you also might remember that no-one else made similar noise in Austria. That is probably because of the reasons I mentioned above.
9. I hear quite often in the UK that the EU is well known for coming up with 'fudge' when needed, and this time would be no different. Indeed, the EU institutions would be more principled about extending article 50 than the EU leaders- no doubt about it.
10. But I just want to flag up that the EU's side of the equation is not straightforward. Here is this argument presented in a more elaborate form: cer.eu/in-the-press/r…
