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Little expectation in EU today that the Withdrawal Agreement will pass. Of it does, EU leaders would be mightily relieved. UK would then have till 22 May to sort out political declaration .. which can still be negotiated. Not legally binding /1
EU mood is one of resignation now. For first time this week a no deal #Brexit is being viewed and discussed as a v real possibility. Rather than a distant, unlikely prospect /2
At yesterday’s meeting of ambassadors of the 27 EU countries, I’m told diplomats tackled ‘hot potato’ EU issues head-on that they preferred to avoid before as long as no deal seemed so unlikely /3
1)Countries confronted Ireland on needing to step up no deal preparations ‘to safeguard EU single market’ 2)Spain was told to stop ‘trying to score tiny points over Gibraltar’ and instead to sign off on language allowing UK citizens visa-free travel in EU in case of no deal /4
If Withdrawal Agreement is rejected again today by House of Commons, EU leaders plan an emergency summit on 10 April by which time they expect Theresa May to inform them of her plans for the UK /5
EU says there are 2 options: UK asks for longer extension past June, meaning it would need to contest elections for European Parliament OR Theresa May opts for no deal #Brexit /6
If UK chooses no deal, EU very unlikely to insist 12 April date to leave. It will likely choose 22 May as cut off date. This still separates #Brexit from European Parliamentary elections (they start 23 May) but leaves extra time to better finalise no deal preparations /7
EU main concern is Irish border. Leaders insist checks needed even if away from border but say some infrastructure prob necessary. Same 3 parties that negotiated backstop: UK, EU +Ireland will need to find solution: protecting Good Friday Agreement +EU protecting single market/8
EU leaders attitude on European parliamentary elections hardened at their March summit. They say no flexibility on 22 May cut off. No possibility of extension till 30 June or longer unless UK takes part in EP elections /9
