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EU emergency #brexit summit 10 April will start 6pm in Brussels. The PM will be invited to ‘engage’ with the 27 EU leaders +inform them of her plans/requests. She’ll then like last time be asked to leave the room while the 27 try to come to unified position required by EU law /1
Leaders are divided. No one likes idea of long #brexit delay - if PM asks for it - and it only takes one country (France in frontline) to say no - as EU decision must be unanimous BUT /2
If the UK does as EU had requested and agrees to holding European parliamentary elections as a condition for being granted a longer #Brexit delay then it’s hard to imagine EU saying no. Even if the PM only presents a vague plan of what intends to do during longer extension /3
This is because if EU leaders say no under those conditions, they will be blamed for no deal by the European businesses and citizens that suffer the consequences /4
Also we are in lead-up to European Parliamentary elections where populist nationalist eurosceptics are expected to perform strongly. AfD, Salvini, Le Pen would have political field day if UK shut out just before vote even though it agreed to EU conditions for longer extension /5
Also the date of 8th April for the PM to inform EU of what she will asks leaders at summit on 10th is not set in stone. It’s the ideal date but .. remember how long and how last minute they waited for her letter before last summit asking for short extension? /6
This is NOT to say that EU leaders are feeling really flexible and open to whatever UK asks for/does. In order to avoid no deal. Far from it. Even the ‘softer’ leaders like Germany’s Angela Merkel have toughened their position /7
It’s unlikely EU leaders will row back on insistence that UK contests European Parliamentary elex as condition for getting longer extension. Hugely unlikely they’d consider reopening Withdrawal Agreement. (Possible they might have done a while back if believed imperative) /8
Ultimately though we don’t know for sure what EU leaders will decide on an extension or anything else when face-to-face at next week’s summit. These days unpredictability rules #Brexit
