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Your argument has nothing to do with reality, that's the problem, bro.
p.s. You continue to cite a paper in which you critique our *now-cast* (a deliberately volatile hypothetical of what would happen in an election held today) and mistake it for our *forecast* but because you're such a stubborn idiot you won't admit to this very basic mistake.
p.p.s. We've been publishing forecasts for 11 years & they're extremely well-calibrated (if anything the politics forecasts are a bit *underconfident*). This totally undermines any semblance of a point you think you have so I get why you're mad, bro. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-w…
