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FWIW, my current thinking on the tiers in the Democratic primary, in terms of likelihood of winning the nomination. This is very rough, obviously:
Tier 1a: Harris, Biden
Tier 1b: Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg, Warren
Tier 2: Booker, Klobuchar
Tier 1a: Harris, Biden
Tier 1b: Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg, Warren
Tier 2: Booker, Klobuchar
I don't have particularly strong feelings about the order of the candidates after that, but I suppose I'd go:
Tier 3a: Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee
Tier 3b: Yang, Hickenlooper, Ryan
Tier 4: Everyone else
Abrams would be at least Tier 2 if she ran.
Tier 3a: Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee
Tier 3b: Yang, Hickenlooper, Ryan
Tier 4: Everyone else
Abrams would be at least Tier 2 if she ran.
Folks asking why I had Biden in a higher tier than Sanders; the main reason is that Biden's polling is quite a bit better. Empirically, candidates with very high name recognition who poll at ~20% (Bernie) don't do so well. ~30% (Biden) is more formidable.
