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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
You know what, this may be a blessing in disguise. Labour now can’t force through compromise of customs union and single market ‘close relationship’. If it’s to be a Tory Brexit, their policy is to insist on a referendum - and that has now become much likelier
Government is falling apart. ERG hardliners who came over to the deal are scrambling to retreat from it. Labour MPs will be furious government showed their party such disrespect. And DUP is never budging, ever.

Given MPs will never endorse no-deal, that leaves... what, exactly?
Either a general election or second referendum. There are no other options. Government has fucked it.

Likeliest of all: we’ll get both.

Nice polling station you’ve got there, 23rd May. Shame if two things were to happen in it at the same time
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More from @jonlis1 see all

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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
Just don’t understand Richard Burgon’s argument on #politicslive that a second ref will enthuse and inflame the far right. What does he think will happen if we end up with a customs union that keeps us tied to the EU or a no-deal that crashes the economy?
If we give far right what they want they are not going to shake hands, thank us and shut up shop. They’ll simply energise further and move on to their next target. We know this. It’s what fascists have done throughout history. It’s time to fight them, not triangulate with them
Of course we must be vigilant about far right and be honest about rage a second ref will provoke. But it’s also time to recognise the far right will exploit literally every Brexit scenario, and some people will follow them for it. It doesn’t mean we do what they tell us - ever.
Read 3 tweets
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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
‘There’s confusion about what a customs union is,’ sneers trade secretary Liam Fox, who goes on to smash the customs union while still not understanding his government’s withdrawal agreement includes one in full
Either he’s too stupid to understand what was agreed in backstop in Dec 2017 and survives to this day, or he’s so far down the rabbit-hole of denial that he can’t accept his job is a fiction, but either way it’s among the most embarrassing ministerial spectacles in living memory
I also love that Fox condescendingly blasts Labour’s customs ‘confusion’. In 2016 officials literally had to explain to him, Davis and May what a customs union actually was.
Read 4 tweets
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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
Ignore informality, shaky camera and awkward laughs. This is another trap for Corbyn. Ending free movement is the first thing May says she has in common with Labour. That should go down like a bucket of cold sick. It’s time for Labour to stand behind its own principles.
May’s video also suggests she might buckle on customs union. She doesn’t say anything about ‘taking back control of our money, borders and laws’ (is this a first?) or the freedom to negotiate our own trade deals. It’s toxic for Brexiters, toxic for Remainers, toxic for Labour.
In all, whole thing is just maddeningly disingenuous. May had 3 years to work cross-party as she says public wants. Instead she bulldozed through a Brexit determined by her alone, and lost 3 times. Now she wants Corbyn to own the mess - while the 48%, as usual, are totally erased
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD: The myth of the soft Brexit majority.

A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.

Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.

(1/9)
Let's start with the Labour Party (245 MPs).

Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).

But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.

So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.

(2/9)
What would the SNP do?

Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".

So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit

(3/9)
Read 12 tweets
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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
1/ "Whose Brexit vision is better?" we are sometimes asked - Labour's or the Conservatives? As a cross party organisation we try not to take sides, but we will try to answer as clearly as possible. #brexit
2/ The main problem with the Conservative Brexit approach is their strict, unyielding; some might say fanatical adherence to their red lines. This is probably because they see brexit as a zero-sum game, where the object of the game is to beat the other player.
3/ The Labour Party have fewer red lines, which should in theory mean it would be easier for them to negotiate a good deal, - but they have picked the wrong main redline - the CUSTOMS UNION. They mistakenly think that a customs union is a panacea.
Read 15 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
1/ Theresa May has made 3 fundamentally incompatible #brexit promises regarding Northern Ireland at least one of which she has to break and one of the 3 groups she will have to betray
2/ Theresa May has promised A. Continued open border in Ireland to the Irish B/ to the #Brexit hardliners that we will withdraw from the customs Union and single market and an end to open borders C/ no difference in #brexit terms between Northern Ireland and rest of the UK
3/ the only way to keep the promise of No hard border in Ireland is to stay in single market and customs Union. This will incense the tory #Brexit hardliners as it will result in losing any say on making rules we still have to obey rendering brexit pointless
Read 9 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread
@MichelBarnier First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/new…
@MichelBarnier So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal?

Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2
Read 18 tweets
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Clive Bates
@Clive_Bates
More on the slow death of a dream. Telegraph #Brexit briefing is softening up the faithful for the inevitable permanent fudge, hinting at another five years in the customs union (and, necessarily, in the single market). This ‘interim period’ would, in practice, never end. 1/10
So the resolution of the Cabinet squabble over future customs arrangements is, “customs partnership and *then* #maxfac” so the government can do what it does best: avoid making the choice. 2/10
But UK and EU tariffs will not diverge in practice because of the preposterous tracking requirements this would trigger under the customs partnership. Fox can’t sign trade deals until this works, which it won’t - and no one will even try if it is merely an interim. 3/10
Read 11 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Before UK politics goes into its normal Sunday morning round of spin on the chat show sofas, a little recap about the #Brexit stage 1 deal.

1/10
A reminder for @AndrewMarr9 @daily_politics @bbcSarahSmith @skynewsniall @RidgeOnSunday -
this is what was agreed in Brussels on Friday
consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15…

*Please* read it before giving any Brexiteers any wriggle room.

2/10
Eurosceptics have been flying off the handle about Brexit transition today. The object of their ire: Philip Hammond, who acknowledged the UK will be in the Customs Union and Single Market during the transition period:
news.sky.com/story/brexit-t…

3/10
Read 10 tweets

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