A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.
Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.
Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).
But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.
So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.
Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".
So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit
So no support there either.
What are the chances of that? Slim to none. Here's why.
How would Tory MPs explain abandoning "global Britain" and "a great global trading nation" for a customs union & no independent trade policy?
Backing a soft Brexit could mean sliding down the greasy pole rather than climbing up it.
Nick Boles has been brave. But there's a reason that 'brave' in politics tends to mean courageous & foolish at the same time.
Are there 140 brave Tory MPs? No way.
MPs need to prepare themselves to support a long extension and a fundamental rethink if they want to avoid no-deal.
In the *end*, that will mean a 2nd referendum.