Thread by @TomKibasi

THREAD: The myth of the soft Brexit majority.

A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.

Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.

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Let's start with the Labour Party (245 MPs).

Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).

But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.

So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.

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What would the SNP do?

Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".

So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit

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The Lib Dems and TIG are on their way to a merger or alliance, and are a "stop Brexit" party. Same is true for the Greens etc.

So no support there either.

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So for there to be a majority for a soft Brexit, you have to believe that 136 Tory MPs would be prepared to accept a customs union and single market regulation.

What are the chances of that? Slim to none. Here's why.

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Many Conservative Associations are as hardline as the ERG (see Boles, N.) May's deal is the softest #Brexit they would accept.

How would Tory MPs explain abandoning "global Britain" and "a great global trading nation" for a customs union & no independent trade policy?

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And in Westminster, MPs realise that it is highly likely that the next Tory leader will be a hardline Brexiteer—one who probably supported Malthouse or no-deal.

Backing a soft Brexit could mean sliding down the greasy pole rather than climbing up it.

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Tory MPs that back soft Brexit risk deselection in their constituencies & career suicide in Westminster.

Nick Boles has been brave. But there's a reason that 'brave' in politics tends to mean courageous & foolish at the same time.

Are there 140 brave Tory MPs? No way.

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If there's no majority for May's deal, no majority for no-deal, no majority for soft Brexit, then what?

MPs need to prepare themselves to support a long extension and a fundamental rethink if they want to avoid no-deal.

In the *end*, that will mean a 2nd referendum.

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BONUS 1: One moderate Tory MP recently told me that his issue with May's deal was that it was a dishonest route to get to a soft Brexit—a customs union by stealth rather than by democratic consent. Interesting way to look at it.

BONUS 2: Remain MPs will always support a softening of Brexit, since a softer Brexit is preferable to a harder Brexit. But that doesn't mean they will support a final soft Brexit deal, because they don't want Brexit itself. This is the mistake many people keep making.

BONUS 3: Let's say I'm completely wrong about Labour & actually it's half that number that are hardline 2nd ref supporters (30 not 60). So Lab brings 210 to soft Brexit. That still means 110 Tory MPs need to back a soft Brexit. Ain't gonna happen.