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1/ 🇪🇺 isn't $TSLA 's savior.

Today marks the day when Audi's E-Tron outsold $TSLAQ's Model S+X combined in #Tesla's 2nd largest market, Norway, on a yearly level, while E-Tron has only been shipping since last month (946 vs 945). Jaguar's i-Pace stands at 1,111.
2/ Model S+X sales collapsed by half YoY in Europe in Q1 (maybe more if TMC's UK estimate is too high, as I think).
3/ Norway S+X sales stands at 53, so prob good for 100 in April. Compares to 716 in April 2018. The Netherlands: 4 (so maybe 10 in Apr?) vs 75. Spain looks better but that includes used imports. Based on these figures, we can expect a 70% freefall YoY for S+X in Europe in Apr.
4/ I'm missing the big picture as bulls would say. Model 3 is the story. Is it?

In March, the M3 broke all records in Europe, no questions asked. But that was 3 years worth of orders delivered in 6 weeks. How does it look in April?

First, due to logistics, there is a spillover.
5/ I'm expecting this spillover to be 3,200, a large chunk of that from Northern Europe (ships got stuck due to severe weather). With this included, around 600 for Norway, I wouldn't be surprised if April came in lower than February for $TSLA. M3 deliveries only started on 2/14.
6/ I've made a bet that Model 3 won't be in the top 2 BEV's in Spain and the Netherlands in April, and not in the top 2 in Norway if you deduct the 600 spillovers.

7/ Seems to be a winning bet in Spain and Norway.

(Spain visualisation h/t
8/ Not quite the case in the Netherlands. Although I might be right, chances are currently that I'm wrong on this one. Sales holds up quite well in NL. Also shows there is still inventory (confirms forum reports and my earlier estimates).
9/ Worth noting that NL was the only country where I was off with my Q1 estimates. And not by a small margin: close to 1,000 cars or 54%.
(Allow for error due to Northern Europe logistics)
10/ I can't tell what the reason for such error is in NL. Are there taxi or other fleets? LeasePlan channel stuffing? Who knows. Doesn't make sense for NL to be almost as big as Germany without the extra subsidies. Any Dutch bros, please chime in with your thoughts.
11/ M3 overall seems to be over in Europe. As I've outlined in my thread, M3 sales in Europe peaked in Q1 (specifically in March). I expect sales to be downhill from here.

12/ Downhill but how much? Well, I expected <5k run-rate for LR AWD+P. Add the 3,200 spillover. OK, but SR+ is much cheaper, must be selling like Hot @hotpockets!

Well, not quite so.
13/ There are 5 (five) orders in the main European tracker from April. 2 of them are SR+'s. None in the NL, FR, NO ones. 3 in Troy's. That compares to, well, read my tweets linked for a comparison below only with your doctor's recommendation.

14/ Yes, there are a few dozens of forum reports of SR+ orders. There obviously must be more. But all of these extrapolate to hundreds of SR+ orders from Europe. Even as uber-bearish as I am, I can't believe it, but don't see a single data point to prove me wrong.
15/ In summary, S+X sales have collapsed, even after the huge price cuts (and the sell-off off 75D inventory? off-menu orders?). Model 3 seems to be over too, even if it will still generate some sales. Expansion cancelled. Europe is over for $TSLAQ.

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