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1/ If you order an M3 in Europe today, you get a May delivery date. As per @skabooshka $TSLA hasn't been building EU cars since early March. It's reasonable to assume that all EU cars made have been shipped to the EU by March with no EU cars left in Fremont.
2/ Since shipping to EU + delivering the cars takes 4 weeks at least, vessels to EU for May delivery should depart latest in the first days of May, but better in the end of April. We have ~3 weeks until then.
3/ This means that at a rate of 5k/wk of production, there is certainly less than 3x5k=15k orders from Europe, including new orders and any backlog from Q1 and earlier.
4/ To be clear, I don't think there is any backlog left. The later EU car production restarts (while delivery date remains May), the more precisely we can narrow down the exact amount/rate of orders since 3/21.
5/ For those who believe in my order and run-rate estimates, this is no news. But for many bulls who have said that there is still a huge backlog of orders, just production was constrained in Q1, this should serve as a wake-up call.
$TSLAQ
$TSLAQ
