European Model 3 LR AWD/P demand has peaked in Q1, $TSLA having delivered almost all cars orders/reservations that have been gathered for the last 3 years. $TSLAQ
We've yet to see demand for LR RWD/MR/SR+/SR & whatever else they might come up with. Surprising they haven't started selling them, which I attribute to 2 reasons: a) I don't think they have a positive GM overseas due to ~$2k shipping/handling costs b) lack of GHG/ZEV credits
If the above holds, it's a HUGE disappointment for bulls and Tesla itself. Musk said European luxury sedan market is 2.5x larger than in the US. What could have led to this flop?
- Quality issues. Europeans could have seen the horror stories from the US. Not bullish.
- Service and parts issues. Ppl in Europe have been complaining at least as much as their US counterparts about extreme long service wait times and parts shortage.
- Differences in perception. In the US, many associate BEV, clean transportation, instant torque, extreme 0-60 with Tesla. Apart from the latter, this isn't the same in Europe. And the latter is changing with new models coming.
- Competition. Bulls would ask "What competition? Tesla is superior in all aspects!" which is not true. Even if it was true, tastes differ. But others have quality, a reliable service network, parts availability, CEOs not calling heros pedos.
Designs that are much better aligned to European taste. 0-60 (or 0-100 for that matter) not THAT important to many. SC network not being that much of a moat. And a lower, sometimes much lower price.
That's what must have misled Musk & Co. I can imagine they've had many more reservations from Europe. For a $35,000 car. Which ended up to be €60k+. Around $70k. Double the price. More if we take the then current exchange rate (so $35k = $29k at that time). $29k vs $70k.
Yes, there are 10% tariffs. Usually ~20% sales tax (VAT). LR AWD and P, not the $35k version. Still, it's double the advertised price, and most customers have lined up for that. They don't know and don't care about tariffs and taxes. In Europe, we see prices w/ taxes included.
$35k ($29k) is not THAT much of a stretch for many. The BEV driving experience, green feeling, tax incentives all help. But not this much. $29 vs $70k is simply too much for most.
Yes, there were/are those ~20-25k customers who are affluent enough or care more about the 0-60 or simply are in love with Tesla. But not many more.
We'll probably see real demand for the lower trims too. They can surprise. In some countries it fits into tax brackets better. They could be suitable as a company car, which is usually a part of your package at these levels. They are much more affordable.
I still think it's not going to be more than 10k initially. Very few data points, a lot of gut feeling, and probably wishful thinking too. We'll see. Don't trade on my gut.
Regardless, Europe is a flop. It must have been a huge surprise to Tesla. They must have based their predictions on much higher order rates in the autumn/early winter. And that could very well cause serious trouble in the next months or weeks.