Thread by @Ben_Reinhardt

1/ Thread on Loonshots by @SafiBahcall
(link: amazon.com/Loonshots-Nurt…) amazon.com/Loonshots-Nurt…

It asks "how do you build an innovation system" from a systemic and 1st-principles*-based approach. Great difference from anecdote-based.
#lsthread

*as much as I 🤔 that term

@SafiBahcall 2/ We don't live in a world with an efficient market in ideas. It's just not true that everything that is both a good idea and possible right now exists. This idea runs contrary to (I believe) many people's assumptions.

@SafiBahcall Pushback against extracting principles from anecdotes like most business books.

@SafiBahcall 4/ We don't talk about incentives in organizations enough.

@SafiBahcall 5/ Highlights the fact that there are very few efforts to bridge all *three* of science, government, and industry.

6/ 🤯

There needs to be both the champion of each individual project, but also people building the system that enables them.

I suspect for organizational things where both too much and too little is bad, you need to have a constant organizational discussion about it to set up a control loop.

Always look at history through this lens.

This is another pervasive assumption many smart people make.

I don't think there's an answer ...

Hmmmm this sounds oddly familiar 🤔

Crazy that 1) This is the reason we had airbases in the Pacific just in time for WWII 2) political connections can make or break a business

It's a pity that there is no systemic way to find false fails (failures where the core idea is still good)

Ok. THIS is hustle.

I suspect there are many of these (sometimes unpleasant to acknowledge) symbioses in the world - if we want new technology we need hype cycles, and some more too unpalatable for twitter.

The book does an amazing job of pulling out principles inspired by complex system theory.

Long German Words are the best.

The question is whether it's possible to tell if "market failures" will ever hit a point where the market can take over and if so, what is that point?

Why is the @boringcompany not doing this?

I don't know how many times I've seen this ... in both situations

Cool idea

Another reason "I just let the data talk" is BS

Just because someone hasn't plugged all the holes in an idea doesn't mean it's bad. Of course, it's not an excuse for any bad idea 🤔

Any innovation system needs a portfolio.

Compelling argument that single gatekeepers kill innovations. I think the contrapositive might also be true: the more different systems we create, the faster we'll progress.

Wut.

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Things I didn't touch on that are worth reading the book for include product-type vs. strategy-type loonshots and how to think about phase transitions.