•VC is a cottage industry but done scrupulously & systematically it can deliver strong, uncorrelated returns. #Alpha generation is very poorly attributed.
•Dollars should be focused into capacity constrained strategies that attack the early stages. VC doesn’t scale.
• I see no obvious warning signs that this is a poor time to enter the asset class. Technology-led innovation is pervasive & cumulative.
• Whilst #SiliconValley has undoubtedly been the epicentre of technology #innovation, other hubs of ideation, innovation & #global problem solving are developing fast.
• Investing with more metrics = less alpha. The best investors are comfortable investing at the edges, but do so on the basis of a scientific & rigorous process that appreciate the risk. A quick summary of rigorous methodology is inspired by P. Tetlock’s #Superforecasting
• The best #EarlyStage investors are foxes — they are curious #polymaths, with broad peripheral vision. #LPs should test for & allocate to investors with the optimal attributes versus making their own editorial about where the next tech wave will come from.
• Technology #KPIs have evolved but I believe most #PublicMarket investors still don’t understand the pervasiveness of technology. Every listed asset is potentially impaired.
• Most early stage investors waste the informational alpha generated — it provides a lens into what will work in the future but in nearly every scenario tells you what isn’t working within incumbents. Cross-pollinate this info to unlock more alpha in public #portfolios.