Thread by @RichieMerzian

The long expected modelling of Labor's climate policy by long-time coal consultant Brian Fisher, BAEconomics is out and it will be parroted by #greatworkme @AngusTaylorMP on @RNBreakfast this morning #auspol

Here are the many red flags in this work 👇
baeconomics.com.au/wp-content/upl…

Firstly, it misunderstand Paris Agreement. It assumes the Coalition Government's 26% target is all Australia needs to comply.

It is not.

Coalition policy to hit 26% is rated as 'highly insufficient' according to @climateactiontr and in line with 4 degree global warming

Paris is asking for targets aligned with under 2 degrees global warming.

Labor's 45% target is just within this band according to the Climate Change Authority.

All countries are expected to regularly ratchet up its target to align with 2 degrees.

carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-…

Fisher says he didn't model the cost of climate impacts. That is convenient cause they are HUGE, around $130billion per year (difference in 2 and 4 degree warming to Aus).

And that figure comes from modelling that Fisher himself lists in his work.

tai.org.au/content/analys…

Fisher's cost of domestic emissions reductions are way off.

He claims that without trading it would hit over $400 a unit in 2030 (context - right now local spot market $18 unit) and based on his last work his figures align with the red line rather than Gov's cost curve.

Fisher's numbers around the excemptions for emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries are arbitrary and his claims that international trading isn't fully agreed under the UNFCCC (true) but nor is using dodgy Kyoto carry-over credits (which he doesn't raise) #auspol2019

And where is this coming from?

Brian Fisher is a regular consultant to the @MineraIsCounciI and mining industry.

He claims he is paying for this work himself but he has a history of advising Coalition Governments against ambitious climate action dating back to Howard.

His work is an outlier

Warwick McKibben’s report for DFAT in 2015, multiple reports by leading academics like Frank Jotzo at the ANU, at UTS, Reputex, Frontier Economics, CSIRO, all show we can take stronger action on climate change with far smaller costs or with net benefits.

The Government has been readily using Fisher's modelling as credible advice because it self-serves.

Why hasn't the Government used the hundreds of economists in the public service to advise it?

Because they wouldn't provide such dodgy work

smh.com.au/federal-electi…

This builds off Brian Fisher's last piece which both the ALP and Government said didn't model their climate policies and which also raised a number major issues around its assumptions

@TheAusInstitute broke it down in detail here in

tai.org.au/content/let-us…

Also check out @Tom_Swann top threat on the last Fisher piece

https://twitter.com/Tom_Swann/status/1107829211446697984

Here is the pic