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Good morning 🌞- busy central bank day in Asia (Australia & Malaysia expected to cut by 25bps consensus although far from unanimous).
For Malaysia, we have called for this since Feb & a cut coming given non-existent CPI, contracting PMI & weak growth.
Update on global PMI👇🏻📉
For Malaysia, we have called for this since Feb & a cut coming given non-existent CPI, contracting PMI & weak growth.
Update on global PMI👇🏻📉
Philippines April CPI came out & it's 3% YoY as we had expected the decline & so rate cuts coming too ✂️✂️✂️.
It will cut the RRR by 100bps & that is priced into the peso. The decline of CPI is due to the base + slowing food CPI.
As promised in my 💌on V-day, rate cuts coming.
It will cut the RRR by 100bps & that is priced into the peso. The decline of CPI is due to the base + slowing food CPI.
As promised in my 💌on V-day, rate cuts coming.
Below 👇🏻 is non-existent CPI for Malaysia 🇲🇾 & why monetary condition is too tight (policy rate is 3.25% but inflation is 0.16%) as shown by the Natixis Monetary Condition Index (real rates + real effective exchange rate & negative = tight).
In short, ✂️✂️✂️.
💌,
@Trinhnomics
In short, ✂️✂️✂️.
💌,
@Trinhnomics
Asia FX versus USD in Q2 so far 👇🏻:
Biggest loser is South Korea w/ -3.2% decline, Malaysian ringgit -1.6%, Australia -1.6%, CNH -1.1%
Notice that these are all countries linked to China growth & hence impacted (SK biggest exposure is China) & weak growth trends vs the US 🇺🇸
Biggest loser is South Korea w/ -3.2% decline, Malaysian ringgit -1.6%, Australia -1.6%, CNH -1.1%
Notice that these are all countries linked to China growth & hence impacted (SK biggest exposure is China) & weak growth trends vs the US 🇺🇸
Australia retail turnover contracted -0.1% on a quarterly basis seasonally adjusted. It is the lowest since 2015 & so another evidence of weakness in the Australian economy & how consumption is affected 👇🏻
