Will China cave? It has called Trump’s bluff before but this time Trump has the strong eco (& Fed holding) behind him🤔
Hanoi unlikely so why the threat?
b) Since Trump has gone soft on China, he was criticised & so looking into 2020 want to come out strong on China
c) Meaning, he wants to come across trying his best.
So, what’s next
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5195OSUcAAdcDu.jpg)
So w/ NFP strong & JPO holding & approvals up, Trump feels confident to raise the stakes.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52BQU3VUAUwUJM.png)
Is it credible?
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52CjJ8UEAAzfOH.png)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52DYZnU0AApJsw.png)
(Yes, if China actually walks away, the tool that it will have to use is the CNY & if that goes, u bet that firms that borrow in USD but earns in CNY will have a hard time😬
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52Q-8WUYAA7d9w.jpg)
Both China & the US are upping the ante & if China walks, the firms that borrowed in USD'll feel the pain 😬
Asia red👇🏻(Japan closed
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52TNHpUwAAf4OW.jpg)
a) Trump is not serious about tariffs so kicking can
b) Trump is serious about tariffs & China isn't about walking away (so deal coming)
c) Trump is serious about tariffs & China is about to walk away.
Which do you think is most likely? 🧐🤔🤔
So it's China's CHOICE that matters for markets as Trump shows his cards 😬
I have a few ideas...
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52cejOUIAEZjEO.jpg)
Yes, this is just an intra-day move 😬😬😬as markets fret option C.
It is among the most volatile equity indices in the world so plenty of up & down but mostly down... 😬
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D52mT7IU8AIm2Hu.jpg)
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D53VnQ-UwAE-TtA.png)
China position clear-cut, US knows it well;
China hopes to meet halfway w/ US, reach win-win deal
Declines comment on trade talks timing & Liu He going to the US
Chinese team preparing to travel to the US for talks
Opposes US actions in South China Sea & 5G